高速铁路地震预警震级快速准确预测方法
发布时间：2018-10-25 10:05
【摘要】：基于我国高速铁路沿线路排列的原位地震监测网络所必需的单台站预警模式,研究提出基于位移平方积分的地震震级预测方法,并与具有代表性的基于平均周期和基于位移幅值的地震震级预测方法进行比较。应用2008年汶川Ms8.0级地震的记录数据,分别推导基于位移平方积分、平均周期和位移幅值这3个特征参数的地震震级预测公式;对比3个公式的预测结果可知,基于位移平方积分的地震震级预测方法预测的震级偏差的标准差最小。通过对地震数据进行频域特性解析,拟合分析3s初始P波谱强度的对数与预测震级偏差之间的相关性,进而提出对震级偏差进行有效修正的方法,修正后的预测方法能够缓解预测大地震时出现的震级"饱和"现象,提高震级的预测精度。提出的基于位移平方积分的地震震级预测公式与修正方法可以实时、准确、快速、有效地预测复杂震源的地震震级,能够满足高速铁路单台站地震预警的严格要求。
[Abstract]:Based on the pre-warning model of a single station necessary for the in-situ seismic monitoring network arranged along the high speed railway in China, the earthquake magnitude prediction method based on the square integral of displacement is proposed. The results are compared with the representative earthquake magnitude prediction methods based on average period and displacement amplitude. Based on the recorded data of the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, the earthquake magnitude prediction formulas based on the three characteristic parameters of displacement square integral, mean period and displacement amplitude are derived, and the prediction results of the three formulas are compared. The standard deviation of magnitude deviation predicted by the method of magnitude prediction based on displacement square integral is minimum. The correlation between the logarithm of the initial P spectrum intensity of 3s and the magnitude deviation of prediction is analyzed by analyzing the frequency domain characteristics of the seismic data, and the method of effectively correcting the magnitude deviation is put forward. The modified prediction method can alleviate the phenomenon of magnitude saturation and improve the accuracy of magnitude prediction. The formula and correction method of earthquake magnitude prediction based on displacement square integral can predict the magnitude of complex source in real time, accurately, quickly and effectively, and can meet the strict requirements of single station earthquake warning in high-speed railway.
【作者单位】： 北京交通大学土木建筑工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51278045);国家自然科学基金高铁联合基金重点资助项目(U1434210) 铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(2010G08-C-1) 深圳地铁集团科研项目(SZ-CGM-KY001/2014)
【分类号】：U238;U298
[Abstract]:Based on the pre-warning model of a single station necessary for the in-situ seismic monitoring network arranged along the high speed railway in China, the earthquake magnitude prediction method based on the square integral of displacement is proposed. The results are compared with the representative earthquake magnitude prediction methods based on average period and displacement amplitude. Based on the recorded data of the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, the earthquake magnitude prediction formulas based on the three characteristic parameters of displacement square integral, mean period and displacement amplitude are derived, and the prediction results of the three formulas are compared. The standard deviation of magnitude deviation predicted by the method of magnitude prediction based on displacement square integral is minimum. The correlation between the logarithm of the initial P spectrum intensity of 3s and the magnitude deviation of prediction is analyzed by analyzing the frequency domain characteristics of the seismic data, and the method of effectively correcting the magnitude deviation is put forward. The modified prediction method can alleviate the phenomenon of magnitude saturation and improve the accuracy of magnitude prediction. The formula and correction method of earthquake magnitude prediction based on displacement square integral can predict the magnitude of complex source in real time, accurately, quickly and effectively, and can meet the strict requirements of single station earthquake warning in high-speed railway.
【作者单位】： 北京交通大学土木建筑工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51278045);国家自然科学基金高铁联合基金重点资助项目(U1434210) 铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(2010G08-C-1) 深圳地铁集团科研项目(SZ-CGM-KY001/2014)
【分类号】：U238;U298
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