化工灾害应急演练与控制关键技术研究

发布时间：2018-10-29 16:28

【摘要】：灾害应急演练是当今应对各种灾害的有效方法。运用计算机技术辅助应急演练不但可以帮助演练参与者熟悉应急预案、提高团队合作能力,还可以帮助决策者检验应急预案的制定是否合理。计算机辅助应急演练系统的研究涉及多学科综合交叉。本文对计算机辅助应急演练系统土要关键技术进行研究,具体工作如下： 1、根据经典的化工类灾害描述公式,提出了化工三大类灾害场的概念及灾害场的计算方法,并通过池火灾温度场算法加以了验证；基于灾害场算法建立了灾害仿真Agent系统,设计了各类Agent的核心结构并描述了Agent之间的联系(为演练脚本系统提供灾害仿真脚本),在系统层面解决了灾害场的仿真结构设计与实现问题；研究了灾害的三维渲染思路和优化方法,针对不同的灾害给出了相关的渲染参数选择方法,解决了灾害场的三维渲染问题。 2、根据化工灾害蔓延的复杂性特点,基于复杂网络理论开展化工多灾害演化过程研究,建立了多灾害网络模型,探索了化工多灾害触发与传播过程方法,提出了运用灾害信息熵描述多灾害之间的综合影响模型并给出具体计算方法。综合影响算法还考虑了灾害与灾害之问的遮挡因素,并设计了相关的参数修正方法。在此基础上基于复杂网络的节点灾害扰动与传播普适性动力学模型,构建了化工厂潜在灾害触发与多灾害动态演化过程的仿真计算模型。 3、重点介绍演练模糊专家系统及推理机的设计方法和应用效果。运用模糊粗糙集理论研究专家系统推理规则的约简方法,进而对模糊—精确决策表进行规制提取；运用模糊粗糙集的熵匹配算法,构造出应急预案推演过程中的规则前件匹配方法。设计出的模糊混合推理机实现了不确定性问题的快速、有效推理。 4、针对应急救援演练控制的复杂性和难以量化问题,为实现多人参演系统的有效控制,基于Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP),建立一种模糊粗糙集知识测度的综合建模方法。首先分析了粗糙集各类知识测度的相关概念、相互联系和各自的特点。其次用AHP方法建立应急演练各测度的综合评判模型。最后还设计了演练过程控制算法和基于本文知识综合测度方法形成的核心控制流程,并给出了模糊控制规则的选取和冲突消解算法。 5、针对应急演练过程与结果评价的多层次性和主客观指标混合性,提出了一种基于层次熵权法和AHP方法的混合评价方法。首先在传统的熵权分析方法的基础上建立了分层的熵权分析方法；其次研究主客观混合评价方法,提出了混合因子的概念并给出了计算方法。研究成果既解决了熵权分析评价的单一性问题,同时也解决了AHP方法对于权值设置的主观性偏离问题,成功的实现了演练的有效评价。 6、运用模块化方法开发了应急演练系统及其核心模块,对模块和系统的设计思路和架构进行描述。运用面向对象设计思想设计了脚本系统模块,描述了模块的应用流程,在此之上实现了演练Agent系统运行与调度。通过三维引擎的设计与实现描述和三维场景组态工具的描述,完整的展示了一个高效实用的应急演练三维核心引擎的整体方案。
[Abstract]:Disaster emergency drill is an effective method to deal with various disasters. The application of computer technology assistant emergency drill not only can help the drilling participants become familiar with the emergency plan, improve the team's cooperation ability, but also help the decision-maker to check whether the emergency plan is reasonable. The research of computer-aided emergency drill system involves multi-disciplinary integration. In this paper, the key technology of computer-aided emergency drill system soil is studied, and the concrete work is as follows: 1. According to the classical chemical disaster description formula, the concept and the disaster field of the third class disaster field of chemical engineering are put forward. The method is verified by a pool fire temperature field algorithm, a disaster simulation agent system is established based on the disaster field algorithm, the core structure of each agent is designed, In this paper, the simulation structure design and implementation of the disaster field are solved at the system level, the three-dimensional rendering idea and optimization method of the disaster are studied, the related rendering parameters selection method is given for different disasters, and the three-dimensional rendering of the disaster field is solved. 2. According to the complexity of the spread of chemical disasters, the multi-hazard network model was established based on the complex network theory and the multi-hazard network model was established, and the triggering and transmission of chemical multi-hazard was explored. In this paper, a comprehensive effect model based on disaster information entropy is proposed and presented. The comprehensive influence algorithm also takes into account the shielding factor of disaster and disaster, and designs the relevant parameters. On this basis, based on the node disaster disturbance and the propagation universal dynamic model of the complex network, the simulation of the potential disaster triggering and multi-hazard dynamic evolution process of the chemical plant is constructed. The real calculation model. 3. Emphasis will be given on the practice of fuzzy expert system and the setting of the simulation system. Based on fuzzy rough set theory, this paper studies the reduction method of expert system reasoning rule, and then applies fuzzy rough set entropy matching algorithm to construct the emergency plan deduction process. The pre-rule matching method. The design of the fuzzy hybrid method realizes the uncertainty problem. Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a fuzzy rough set based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is proposed. The comprehensive modeling method of knowledge measure is introduced, and the related concepts of various knowledge measures in rough sets are analyzed first. Secondly, use the AHP method to establish the emergency performance. Finally, the control algorithm of drill process and the core control flow formed on the basis of this method are also designed, and the fuzzy control rule is also given. According to the multi-level of the emergency drill process and the result evaluation and the mixture of subjective and objective indexes, a hierarchical entropy weight is put forward. Firstly, a layered entropy weight analysis method is established on the basis of traditional entropy weight analysis method; secondly, the main objective mixed evaluation method is studied, and the mixed evaluation method is proposed. The concept of the combining factor and the calculation method are given. The research results not only solve the singularity problem of the entropy weight analysis evaluation, but also solve the subjectivity deviation problem of the AHP method on the right value setting. and 6, the emergency drill system and its core module are developed by using the modularized method, The design idea and architecture of the module and the system are described. The script system module is designed by using the object-oriented design idea, and the application flow of the module is described. The operation and scheduling of the drilling agent system is realized. Through the three-dimensional engine design and realization description and the description of the three-dimensional scene configuration tool, the complete display shows a high-efficiency reality.
【学位授予单位】：北京化工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TQ086;TP391.9

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