基于联系数的集成化安全度评价模型构建及其应用

发布时间：2018-11-04 11:05

【摘要】：系统综合评价是个十分复杂的问题,它涉及评价对象集、评级指标集、评价方法集、评价人集,从而评价结果也由包括但不限于的上述各种因素的组合所影响或决定。对一个复杂对象的评价能否准确,不但受所遴选的专家群及描述被评价对象特征的指标体系的影响,还受所选择评价方法的影响。单一评价方法的应用一定程度上解决系统评价问题并为决策提供了参考,但仍然存在各方面的缺点。因此,就要求我们要有系统观念,运用“集成法”帮助解决评价过程中出现的问题,在各个阶段都比较科学合理开展的情况下才能最终评价结果的可靠性。当前,人们已经重视对综合评价方法的创新与发展。从系统观念出发,分析系统特点,采用“集成化”的方案,针对问题的不同侧面应用不同的理论或方法以发挥其优势,是多指标综合评价方法发展的途径之一。故本文就水上交通系统安全度集成化评价模型的构建及应用做了研究。本文研究工作主要有以下几个方面：第一章为研究背景及研究内容的介绍,并交代了本文的内容架构；第二章对水上交通安全评价常用理论与模型进行了回顾与概括,如模糊理论与模糊综合评价模型、灰色理论与灰色聚类评价模型等,这些理论与模型可为采用“集成化”的评价方案提供借鉴。第三章为文章核心部分。首先概括介绍了集对分析理论及其联系数概念,其次分析了构建基于联系数结构的综合评价模型的可行性,并建立了基于联系数结构的安全度综合评价模型；再次,分析了评价模型中各组成模块的含义并给出了其实现方法；最后,给出了“对立---统一”的评价结果形式。第四章以课题组项目为契机,系统、深入、细致的分析了长江尹公洲航段的通航环境特征；第五章确定了尹公洲航段安全度评价的指标体系并引用了相应的评价标准,构建了指标安全等级灰类的白化权函数；第六章是文章的重点,主要运用所建立的联系数结构的安全评价模型对尹公洲航段进行了通航环境安全度量化综合评价；第七章为研究结论与展望,对本文的研究内容、研究结果进行了总结,提出了论文的不足之处,并针对尚可以深入研究的方面提出了研究展望。
[Abstract]:Systematic comprehensive evaluation is a very complex problem, which involves the evaluation object set, rating index set, evaluation method set and evaluation person set. Therefore, the evaluation results are also influenced or determined by the combination of the above factors, which include but are not limited to. Whether the evaluation of a complex object is accurate or not is influenced not only by the selected expert group and the index system which describes the characteristics of the object to be evaluated, but also by the selected evaluation method. The application of single evaluation method solves the problem of system evaluation to a certain extent and provides a reference for decision making, but there are still shortcomings in all aspects. Therefore, we need to have a systematic concept, use "integrated method" to help solve the problems in the evaluation process, in each stage of scientific and reasonable development of the final evaluation results reliability. At present, people have attached importance to the innovation and development of comprehensive evaluation methods. Starting from the system concept, analyzing the characteristics of the system, adopting the scheme of "integration" and applying different theories or methods to the different sides of the problem in order to give play to its advantages, it is one of the ways to develop the multi-index comprehensive evaluation method. Therefore, the construction and application of the integrated evaluation model of water transportation system safety are studied in this paper. The main research work of this paper is as follows: the first chapter is the introduction of the research background and research content, and explains the content structure of this paper; In the second chapter, the common theories and models of water traffic safety evaluation are reviewed and summarized, such as fuzzy theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, grey theory and grey cluster evaluation model, etc. These theories and models can be used for reference in the integrated evaluation scheme. The third chapter is the core part of the article. Firstly, the theory of set pair analysis and the concept of connection number are introduced. Secondly, the feasibility of constructing a comprehensive evaluation model based on connection number structure is analyzed, and a comprehensive evaluation model of safety degree based on connection number structure is established. Thirdly, the meaning of each component module in the evaluation model is analyzed and its implementation method is given. Finally, the evaluation result form of "opposition-unity" is given. The fourth chapter takes the project as the turning point, systematically, deeply, meticulously analyzes the navigation environment characteristic of the Yangtze River Yin Gongzhou section; In the fifth chapter, the index system of the safety degree evaluation of Yin Gongzhou section is determined and the corresponding evaluation standard is cited, and the whitening weight function of the grey class of the index safety grade is constructed. The sixth chapter is the focus of the article, mainly using the established safety evaluation model of connection number structure to evaluate the navigation environment safety degree of Yin Gongzhou section. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and prospect of the research. The research contents and results are summarized, the deficiencies of the paper are put forward, and the research prospect is put forward in view of the aspects that can be further studied.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698

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