基于BN-bow-tie的生物质气化中毒事故分析
发布时间：2018-11-04 17:53
【摘要】：通过将故障树转化为贝叶斯网络,计算生物质气化中毒事故发生的概率为1.202 98×10-4/d,利用贝叶斯网络双向推导与诊断的功能计算基本事件的后验概率及重要度,从而分析出系统中导致事故发生的薄弱环节.结合bow-tie法同时分析导致薄弱环节失效的因素及失效后可能会出现的后果,基于此得出防止薄弱环节失效的预防措施以及失效后采取的控制措施,进而降低事故发生的概率;对薄弱环节阀门泄漏采取措施后,可使得中毒事故发生概率降低20.92%,最终达到降低事故发生概率的目的.
[Abstract]:By transforming the fault tree into Bayesian network, the probability of biomass gasification poisoning accident is calculated to be 1.202 脳 10 ~ (-4) / d, and the posterior probability and importance of basic events are calculated by using the function of bidirectional derivation and diagnosis of Bayesian network. In order to analyze the weak links in the system that lead to accidents. Combined with the bow-tie method, the factors that lead to the weak link failure and the possible consequences after the failure are analyzed simultaneously. Based on this, the preventive measures to prevent the weak link from failure and the control measures taken after the failure are obtained, thus reducing the probability of the accident. The probability of poisoning accident can be reduced by 20.92% after taking measures to the leakage of weak link valve, and finally the probability of accident occurrence can be reduced.
【作者单位】： 东北大学资源与土木工程学院;
【基金】：辽宁省自然科学基金资助项目(2013020137) 农业部农村能源专项(2012-27)
【分类号】：X928.5
[Abstract]:By transforming the fault tree into Bayesian network, the probability of biomass gasification poisoning accident is calculated to be 1.202 脳 10 ~ (-4) / d, and the posterior probability and importance of basic events are calculated by using the function of bidirectional derivation and diagnosis of Bayesian network. In order to analyze the weak links in the system that lead to accidents. Combined with the bow-tie method, the factors that lead to the weak link failure and the possible consequences after the failure are analyzed simultaneously. Based on this, the preventive measures to prevent the weak link from failure and the control measures taken after the failure are obtained, thus reducing the probability of the accident. The probability of poisoning accident can be reduced by 20.92% after taking measures to the leakage of weak link valve, and finally the probability of accident occurrence can be reduced.
【作者单位】： 东北大学资源与土木工程学院;
【基金】：辽宁省自然科学基金资助项目(2013020137) 农业部农村能源专项(2012-27)
【分类号】：X928.5
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相关期刊论文 前1条
1 ;Bow-tie topological features of metabolic networks and the functional significance[J];Chinese Science Bulletin;2007年08期
【共引文献】
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