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公务机飞行安全风险分析与评估

发布时间:2018-11-15 17:30
【摘要】:近年来,我国公务航空业快速发展,公务机数量及起落架次不断增加。在满足旅客多元化出行要求的同时,也突显出运行规章滞后、管理手段不合理、安全投入不足等问题,影响飞行安全的事件时有发生,公务航空的飞行安全管理工作形势相对严峻。因此有必要对公务机飞行安全风险进行研究,更好地了解影响公务机飞行安全的风险因素,通过制定相应的控制措施来降低飞行安全风险,对提升公务航空飞行安全水平具有十分重要的意义。本文首先对公务机飞行安全风险因素进行了分析。从NTSB收集公务机事件/事故100起,采用基元事件分析法对每起事件/事故进行原因分析,建立公务机飞行安全风险因素集;然后赴多家公务机公司进行实地调研,了解公务机在实际运行过程中的风险;最后根据分析得到的风险因素以及指标体系的建立原则,初步建立指标体系,通过反复咨询公务机行业管理人员,确定公务机飞行安全风险指标体系,包括飞行管理、飞行保障、飞行环境和安全管理4指标20个因素;本文在分析现有飞行安全风险评估方法的基础上,结合公务机飞行安全风险指标体系的特点,根据可拓学理论建立公务机飞行安全风险可拓优度评估模型;对一家规模较大的公务机公司和三家规模相对较小的公务机公司进行综合评估,分别计算其关联度和风险特征值确定公务机飞行安全风险等级。实际计算结果表明,规模较大的公务机公司飞行安全水平处于Ⅱ级-低风险,主要在安全管理上存在不足;规模较小的公务机公司飞行安全水平处于Ⅲ级-一般风险,主要在飞行保障和安全管理上存在不足。该模型能够对公务机飞行安全风险进行定量的分析,能够科学、客观的评估公务机飞行安全风险水平,发现影响飞行安全的风险因素,并提出相应的对策,提高公务航空安全管理水平,为公务机飞行安全管理提供一定的参考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's civil aviation industry has developed rapidly, the number of business aircraft and landing gear times are increasing. While meeting the requirements of passengers' diversified travel, it also highlights the problems of lagging operation regulations, unreasonable management methods, insufficient safety investment, and so on. Incidents affecting flight safety occur from time to time. Civil aviation flight safety management situation is relatively severe. Therefore, it is necessary to study the flight safety risk of business aircraft, to better understand the risk factors that affect the flight safety of business aircraft, and to reduce the flight safety risk by making corresponding control measures. It is of great significance to improve the safety level of civil aviation flight. Firstly, this paper analyzes the risk factors of flight safety of business aircraft. This paper collects 100 business plane incidents / accidents from NTSB, analyzes the causes of each event / accident by using the elementary event analysis method, and establishes the risk factor set of business plane flight safety. Then go to a number of business jet companies to conduct field research, to understand the actual operation of business aircraft in the process of risk; Finally, according to the analysis of the risk factors and the establishment of the index system principles, the preliminary establishment of the index system, through repeated consultation with the business jet industry management personnel, determine the business aircraft flight safety risk index system, including flight management, Flight support, flight environment and safety management 4 indicators 20 factors; Based on the analysis of the existing flight safety risk assessment methods and the characteristics of the commercial aircraft flight safety risk index system, this paper establishes the extension evaluation model of the commercial aircraft flight safety risk according to the extension theory. A large business jet company and three relatively small business jet companies are comprehensively evaluated, and their correlation degree and risk characteristic value are calculated to determine the flight safety risk grade of the business jet. The actual calculation results show that the flight safety level of the larger business jet company is in grade 鈪,

本文编号:2333969

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