基于ARIMA干预模型和对比分析的安徽

发布时间：2018-11-19 20:19

【摘要】：为了研究"清剿火患"行动对安徽省火灾形势的抑制作用,采用ARIMA干预模型与火灾数据对比的方法对2007—2012年安徽省火灾统计数据进行了分析。2种ARIMA干预模型都能检测到"清剿火患"行动对季节调整后火灾起数时间序列的抑制效果。根据干预模型,抑制效果在"清剿火患"行动开展后第3个月时出现,火灾立即减少约300起,随后抑制效果逐渐衰减。在"清剿火患"行动开展14个月后,抑制效果几乎衰减为0。通过对比"清剿火患"期间与2009-10—2010-02、2010-10—2011-02的火灾统计数据,发现"清剿火患"行动期间的火灾起数较前两年同期的火灾起数大幅度降低,平均降幅达64%。在此基础上又分析了不同火灾原因、火灾场所和火灾起数的降低情况。对比发现,"清剿火患"期间火灾死亡人数与死亡人数不低于3人的火灾起数均降低为0。
[Abstract]:In order to study the effects of the action of "clearing and suppressing fire hazards" on the fire situation in Anhui Province, The statistical data of fire in Anhui Province from 2007 to 2012 were analyzed by means of ARIMA intervention model and fire data. Both kinds of ARIMA intervention models could detect the suppression effect of fire suppression action on seasonally adjusted fire onset time series. According to the intervention model, the suppression effect appeared in the third month after the operation of "clearing and suppressing fire", the fire immediately decreased about 300, and then the inhibition effect gradually decreased. After 14 months of anti-fire operations, the suppression almost attenuated to 0. 5%. By comparing the fire statistics between the period of "clearing and suppressing fire" and the period of 2009-10-02 and 2010-10-2011-02, it is found that the number of fires in the period of "clearing and suppressing fire" is significantly lower than that of the previous two years, with an average drop of 64%. On this basis, the different fire causes, the fire site and the reduction of the number of fires are analyzed. The comparison found that the number of fire deaths and the number of people killed in the fire during the period of "clearing and suppressing fire" decreased to 0. 5%, while the number of people killed was not less than 3.
【作者单位】：中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71403254,91024027)
【分类号】：X928.7

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