北京地铁运营安全风险评价体系研究
发布时间：2018-11-28 15:58
【摘要】：我国经济发展日益兴盛,改革开放以来不断提高的城市化水平造成了严重的城市交通拥堵问题,全国各地都掀起了建设地铁的高潮。地铁运营过程中人员大量聚集,如果地铁在运营过程中发生事故情况,后果不堪设想,地铁运营的安全性被所有人越来越重视。如果不想发生重大的地铁运营安全事故,并进行有效的事前控制,那么我们就要对地铁的安全运营系统进行准确可行的风险测评。本文通过分析全世界范围内的地铁安全运营事故数据统计,依照分析结果判断主要的地铁事故是什么类型,找出地铁事故发生的根本原因,并把影响地铁安全运营的风险因素归结为四点。一是人员,二是设备设施,三是环境,四是管理。其次通过系统安全理论的指导,试运用解析结构模型对影响地铁运营安全的主要风险因素划分层次,确定每个层次影响系统风险水平的大小。在我国地铁运营系统风险评估模型中,首先使用三角模糊数的层次分析法,计算出各安全风险指标的权重,在计算过程中,我们将以地铁运营方面各相关领域的各评价人员的工作年限为依据,设定相应的权重数值以此减小评价人员主观因素对评价结果的影响。在量化系统及子系统的风险方面,运用风险分级评价法对人、设备设施、环境和管理四个方面的风险进行等级划分,利用模糊综合评价的方法,量化整个系统的风险水平。通过参考这些方法和进行数据分析,希望能够帮助地铁运营管理者做出科学的管理决策,一定程度的带动地铁运营系统安全水平的提升。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the increasing level of urbanization has caused a serious problem of urban traffic congestion, and all parts of the country have set off a climax of subway construction. In the course of subway operation, a large number of people gather, if the subway in the operation of accidents, the consequences are unthinkable, the safety of subway operation has been paid more and more attention. If we do not want to have a major subway operation safety accident, and carry out effective prior control, then we have to carry out an accurate and feasible risk assessment of the subway safety operation system. By analyzing the data statistics of subway safety operation accidents in the world, according to the results of the analysis, this paper judges the main types of subway accidents, and finds out the fundamental causes of the subway accidents. And will affect the subway safety operation risk factors down to four points. One is personnel, two is equipment, three is the environment, four is the management. Secondly, through the guidance of the system safety theory, this paper tries to use the analytic structure model to divide the main risk factors that affect the safety of subway operation, and determine the magnitude of each level that affects the system risk level. In the risk assessment model of subway operation system in our country, firstly, the AHP of triangular fuzzy number is used to calculate the weight of each safety risk index, and in the process of calculation, Based on the working life of the evaluators in various related fields of subway operation, we will set the corresponding weights to reduce the impact of subjective factors on the evaluation results. In the aspect of quantifying the risk of the system and subsystem, the risk level of the whole system is quantified by using the risk grading evaluation method in the four aspects of people, equipment, facilities, environment and management, and the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to quantify the risk level of the whole system. By referring to these methods and analyzing the data, we hope to help the subway operators to make scientific management decisions and to promote the safety level of the subway operation system to a certain extent.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院大学(工程管理与信息技术学院)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U298
本文编号：2363380
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the increasing level of urbanization has caused a serious problem of urban traffic congestion, and all parts of the country have set off a climax of subway construction. In the course of subway operation, a large number of people gather, if the subway in the operation of accidents, the consequences are unthinkable, the safety of subway operation has been paid more and more attention. If we do not want to have a major subway operation safety accident, and carry out effective prior control, then we have to carry out an accurate and feasible risk assessment of the subway safety operation system. By analyzing the data statistics of subway safety operation accidents in the world, according to the results of the analysis, this paper judges the main types of subway accidents, and finds out the fundamental causes of the subway accidents. And will affect the subway safety operation risk factors down to four points. One is personnel, two is equipment, three is the environment, four is the management. Secondly, through the guidance of the system safety theory, this paper tries to use the analytic structure model to divide the main risk factors that affect the safety of subway operation, and determine the magnitude of each level that affects the system risk level. In the risk assessment model of subway operation system in our country, firstly, the AHP of triangular fuzzy number is used to calculate the weight of each safety risk index, and in the process of calculation, Based on the working life of the evaluators in various related fields of subway operation, we will set the corresponding weights to reduce the impact of subjective factors on the evaluation results. In the aspect of quantifying the risk of the system and subsystem, the risk level of the whole system is quantified by using the risk grading evaluation method in the four aspects of people, equipment, facilities, environment and management, and the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to quantify the risk level of the whole system. By referring to these methods and analyzing the data, we hope to help the subway operators to make scientific management decisions and to promote the safety level of the subway operation system to a certain extent.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院大学(工程管理与信息技术学院)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U298
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