大连港及其附近水域船舶碰撞事故风险分析

发布时间：2018-11-28 19:25

【摘要】：碰撞一直是国内外专家学者重点研究的对象,作为海上交通事故的主要种类,碰撞事故一旦发生,生命财产无疑会受到严重威胁。国内外碰撞相关研究已从多方面展开,然而针对某一特定水域船舶碰撞风险定量计算分析有待进一步深入。船舶碰撞概率及碰撞后果受多方面要素影响,如何有效挖掘上述影响要素,针对性地建立评价体系,计算碰撞概率和碰撞后果,合理构建风险矩阵,并确定可接受风险标准,定量地对碰撞风险进行分析,是本文研究的重点与难点。本文综合运用模糊关联分析、模糊综合评价、MATLAB曲线拟合和粗糙集等理论方法对大连港及其附近水域船舶碰撞事故资料进行了挖掘与分析,参考IMO指导性文件,最终建立了大连港及其附近水域船舶碰撞事故风险分析模型。该模型可为大连港及其附近水域航行船舶提供服务,供其自我判断碰撞风险水平,适时做出合理调整,以保证船舶航行安全。同时该模型可在修改相关参数后,普遍应用于其他水域。
[Abstract]:Collision has always been the focus of experts and scholars at home and abroad, as the main type of maritime traffic accidents, once the collision accident occurs, life and property will undoubtedly be seriously threatened. The research on collision has been carried out from many aspects at home and abroad. However, the quantitative calculation and analysis of ship collision risk in a specific water area need to be further studied. The probability and consequence of ship collision are affected by many factors. How to excavate the above factors effectively, set up the evaluation system, calculate the probability and consequence of collision, construct the risk matrix reasonably, and determine the acceptable risk standard. Quantitative analysis of collision risk is the focus and difficulty of this paper. In this paper, the data of ship collision accident in Dalian Port and its adjacent waters are excavated and analyzed by using fuzzy correlation analysis, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, MATLAB curve fitting and rough set, and reference to IMO guidance document. Finally, the risk analysis model of ship collision accident in Dalian Port and its adjacent waters is established. The model can provide service for navigation ships in Dalian Port and its adjacent waters, which can self-judge the level of collision risk and make reasonable adjustments in time to ensure the safety of navigation. At the same time, the model can be widely used in other waters after modifying the relevant parameters.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698.6

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