基于变形监测数据的抚顺西露天矿安全评价研究

发布时间：2018-12-07 19:22

【摘要】：本文以东北大学和辽宁省地质环境监测总站合作的《抚顺西露天矿北边坡变形监测及预警系统建设研究项目》为基础,运用GPS监测、预应力锚索监测以及雷达监测三种监测方法,对抚顺西露天矿北边坡进行变形监测,从矿山生产安全的视角,分析对比监测数据,进而建立了与工程实际相符的灰色系统理论DGM(1,1)模型和灰色线性回归组合模型,为安全生产及时提供预警信息,并找出了影响边坡稳定性的危险因子,采用FTA方法做了安全评价。本文的研究内容主要包括：1、本文采用了GPS监测数据对皮带道观测线做出下沉曲线图、下沉速率曲线图,直观的表现出监测期内其下沉特点及趋势；2、用预应力锚索和雷达远程监控系统相结合的方法,从边坡内部应力变化和表面位移变化两方面,对北帮边坡进行监测和预警,能够及时掌握边坡稳定状态,并且对比三种监测结果结合现场实际情况进一步分析边坡所处状态,摸清影响边坡稳定性的主要因素,分析滑坡机理；3、采用灰色系统理论建模软件,用DGM(1,1)建模和灰色线性回归组合模型方法对抚顺市西露天矿发电厂观测线水池-3监测点和东800-3号监测点的沉降情况进行了建模,并对抚顺市西露天矿发电厂观测线水池-3监测点和东800-3号监测点进行了中短期预测；4、通过对导致边坡破坏事故原因的调查和分析,找出影响北帮边坡安全的11个影响因子,建立事故树模型,分析边坡破坏发生的概率,从结构重要度和概率重要度两个方面比较各影响因子对边坡破坏的影响大小,从而提出可采取的安全防范措施及整改对策。在本文中,采用了预应力锚索监测、雷达监测等先进监测手段,结合灰色系统理论建模的方法,辅以FTA进行定量安全评价,具有一定的应用前景,为安全生产及正确决策提供有效的技术手段。
[Abstract]:This paper is based on the "Research Project on deformation Monitoring and early warning system Construction of North Slope of Fushun West Open-pit Mine", which is cooperated by Northeast University and Liaoning Provincial Geological Environment Monitoring General Station, and uses GPS monitoring. The deformation of the north slope of Fushun West Open-pit Mine is monitored by three monitoring methods of prestressed anchor cable and radar. From the perspective of mine production safety, the monitoring data are analyzed and compared. Furthermore, the grey system theory DGM (1 + 1) model and the grey linear regression combination model are established, which can provide early warning information for safety production and find out the risk factors affecting slope stability. The safety evaluation is done by FTA method. The main research contents of this paper are as follows: 1. The subsidence curve and the subsidence rate curve of the belt track observation line are made by GPS monitoring data, which show the subsidence characteristics and trends in the monitoring period. 2. By combining the prestressed anchor cable with the radar remote monitoring system, the slope stability of the north slope can be grasped in time by monitoring and warning the slope from the two aspects of internal stress change and surface displacement change. And compared with the three monitoring results combined with the actual situation of the site to further analyze the state of the slope, find out the main factors affecting the slope stability, analyze the landslide mechanism; 3. Using the grey system theory modeling software, using DGM (1t1) modeling and grey linear regression combined model method, the subsidence of observation line-3 monitoring point and east 800-3 monitoring point of Fushun west open pit power plant are modeled. At the same time, the medium and short term prediction of the observation line-3 monitoring point and the east 800-3 monitoring point of Fushun West Open-pit Power Plant are carried out. 4. Through the investigation and analysis of the cause of slope failure, 11 factors affecting the safety of north slope are found out, the accident tree model is established, and the probability of slope failure is analyzed. The influence of each influence factor on slope failure is compared from two aspects of structural importance and probability importance, and the measures of safety prevention and rectification are put forward. In this paper, the advanced monitoring means such as pre-stressed anchor cable monitoring and radar monitoring, combined with the method of grey system theory modeling, are used to carry out quantitative safety evaluation with FTA, which has a certain application prospect. To provide effective technical means for production safety and correct decision making.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TD76

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