上海水域溢油应急能力评价研究

发布时间：2018-12-13 00:51

【摘要】：近年来上海港年外贸吞吐量占全国沿海主要港口的20%左右,2012年上海港货物吞吐量为7.36亿吨,同比增长1.1%,继续保持世界第一位。2010-2012年间,上海港油类、危险品进出港船舶均保持在6.5万艘次的水平,每年油类、危险品货物进出港约5千万吨。繁忙的水上交通运输活动是水上污染事故的主要源头之一。上海港辖区内的长江口和黄浦江部分水域是上海市民日用水的主要水源地,一旦发生溢油事故对取水区域产生污染,发生的次生灾害将会损失严重,这就对上海港水上安全监管和污染应急能力提出了较高要求。上海港从1999年至2012年间共发生各类船舶油类与化学品污染事故189起,油类与化学品累计泄漏量近2,800t,平均每年发生污染事故14.54起。因此需要对上海水域溢油应急能力做出客观评价,了解溢油应急能力的实际水平,发现不足并提出建设方向。交通部发布的《国家水上交通安全监管和救助系统布局规划》、《交通运输“十二五”发展规划》和《上海海事局“十二五”发展规划》都对未来溢油应急建设提出了目标和方向,这也为本文提供了研究导向。研究发现,目前针对区域溢油应急能力评价结果多为定性结论,不足以实际衡量或指导区域性溢油应急能力的建设工作。本文综述了国内外研究的现状,分析了上海水域近十年的溢油事故情况和近三年油类、危险品货物进出港情况,参考国内外相关溢油应急评价指南性文件,构建了上海水域溢油应急能力评价指标体系,并利用层次分析法、熵值法和博弈论方法对指标体系组合赋权,同时引入了负权重概念,得到较为合理的主客观综合权重值。基于上海水域目前应急物资配备数据,利用未确知数学评价模型对上海水域溢油应急能力进行评价,得出上海水域溢油应急能力能够应对的一次溢油事故的最大溢油量,解决了评价结果的量化问题,为今后上海溢油应急能力建设的硬件设施投入重点和建设方向提供了参考,具有一定实践应用和指导意义。最后,论文从未来规划建设、资源利用、应急联动等方面对上海水域溢油应急能力建设和发展提出了对策和建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Shanghai Port's annual foreign trade throughput has accounted for about 20 percent of the country's major coastal ports. In 2012, Shanghai Port cargo throughput was 736 million tons, an increase of 1.1 percent over the same period last year. Dangerous goods in and out of the port are maintained at the level of 65000 times, oil, dangerous goods in and out of the port about 50 million tons. The busy water transportation is one of the main sources of water pollution accidents. The Yangtze River Estuary and some parts of the Huangpu River in the Shanghai Port area are the main sources of daily water use for Shanghai residents. Once oil spills occur to pollute the water intake areas, the secondary disasters will suffer serious losses. This puts forward higher requirements to Shanghai Port water safety supervision and pollution emergency capability. From 1999 to 2012, 189 oil and chemical pollution accidents occurred in Shanghai Port, and the accumulative leakage amount of oil and chemicals was nearly 2800t, with an average of 14.54 pollution accidents per year. Therefore, it is necessary to make an objective evaluation of the oil spill emergency capability in Shanghai waters, to understand the actual level of oil spill emergency response ability, to find out the deficiency and to put forward the construction direction. The Ministry of Communications issued the "National Water Traffic Safety Supervision and Relief system layout Plan", Both the 12th Five-Year Plan of Transportation and the 12th Five-Year Plan of Shanghai Maritime Bureau have put forward the goal and direction for the construction of oil spill emergency in the future, which also provides the research direction for this paper. It is found that most of the evaluation results of regional oil spill emergency capacity are qualitative, which is not enough to measure or guide the construction of regional oil spill emergency capacity. This paper summarizes the present situation of domestic and foreign research, analyzes the oil spill accidents in Shanghai waters in the past ten years and the situation of oil and dangerous goods entering and leaving port in the last three years, and refers to the relevant guidelines for oil spill emergency evaluation at home and abroad. The evaluation index system of oil spill emergency response capacity in Shanghai waters is constructed, and the combination weight of the index system is weighted by AHP, entropy and game theory, and the concept of negative weight is introduced, and a reasonable subjective and objective comprehensive weight is obtained. Based on the data of emergency equipment in Shanghai water area, using the unascertained mathematical evaluation model to evaluate the oil spill emergency capability of Shanghai water area, the maximum oil spill capacity of an oil spill accident in Shanghai water area can be obtained. It solves the problem of quantification of the evaluation results, and provides a reference for the investment emphasis and construction direction of the hardware facilities in Shanghai oil spill emergency capacity construction in the future, which has certain practical application and guiding significance. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on the construction and development of oil spill emergency capacity in Shanghai waters from the aspects of future planning and construction, resource utilization, emergency linkage and so on.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698.7

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