1949-2015年中国典型自然灾害及粮食灾损特征

发布时间：2018-12-15 17:37

【摘要】：中国是一个自然灾害频发的国家,研究其自然灾害演变特征及粮食灾损规律,对实现中国社会经济可持续发展、解决中国粮食安全问题具有重要意义。本文先基于Python语言编程获取1949-2015年中国31省市自然灾害造成的受灾、成灾、绝收面积,构建灾害强度指数分析不同灾种的时序特征分异,利用趋势分析、ESDA方法分析不同灾种在省域空间的分布特征及冷热区;再获取1949-2015年粮食种植数据,通过粮食灾损估算模型、定义粮食灾损率、地理空间探测器,计算并检验中国粮食损失时空特征及分异性。结果表明:(1)相比受灾面积曲线,本文构建的灾害程度指数能够更好揭示自然灾害时序演变特征;(2)1949-2015年期间中国两大主力灾害(洪灾、旱灾)交替出现,未来5~10年以洪灾为主;(3)灾种排序旱灾洪灾风雹低温台风,其中旱灾、洪灾受灾占比过半;(4)省域不同灾种间空间趋势变化特征明显,区域受灾面积东部西部,北部南部,且北部灾种单一、南部多灾并发;(5)自然灾害受灾总和、旱灾、雹灾、低温空间上全局自相关性不显著,呈随机模式分布,洪涝、台风在空间分布上具有显著的全局自相关性,呈集聚模式;(6)1949-2015年灾害、灾损量、灾损率整体时序趋势呈现先升后降,2000年为临界点,空间分布具有异质性,单因子解释力度差异显著,多因子交互均呈非线性增强关系,胡焕庸线两侧冷热点分布呈两极化且其重心向北迁移。建议政府加强除旱减雹(西北)、除旱排内涝(东北)、排涝防冻(中部)、排涝预台(东南沿海)等工程技术措施;同时西北(环境恶劣)、东北(中国粮仓)应作为防灾减灾重点保护区,制定专项保护方案,以保证中国粮食丰产增收。
[Abstract]:China is a country with frequent natural disasters. It is of great significance to study the evolution characteristics of natural disasters and the law of grain loss in order to realize the sustainable development of China's social economy and solve the problem of food security in China. In this paper, based on the programming of Python language, the natural disasters caused by natural disasters in 31 provinces and cities in China from 1949 to 2015 are acquired. The disaster intensity index is constructed to analyze the temporal characteristics of different disasters, and the trend analysis is used. ESDA method is used to analyze the distribution characteristics of different kinds of disasters in provincial space and the cold and hot areas. Then we obtain the grain planting data from 1949 to 2015, define the grain loss rate and geospatial detector, and calculate and test the temporal and spatial characteristics and differences of grain losses in China by using the grain disaster loss estimation model. The results show that: (1) compared with the disaster area curve, the disaster degree index constructed in this paper can better reveal the temporal evolution characteristics of natural disasters; (2) the two main disasters (flood, drought) appeared alternately in China from 1949 to 2015, mainly in the coming 5 ~ 10 years, (3) drought, flood, hail, low temperature typhoon, among which drought, flood disaster accounted for more than half; (4) the spatial trend of different disasters in the province is obvious, the disaster area is in the east and west, the north and the south, and the northern disaster is single, and the southern part is complicated with many disasters; (5) the global autocorrelation of natural disasters, drought, hail and low temperature is not significant, which is random pattern distribution, flood and typhoon have significant global autocorrelation in spatial distribution. (6) from 1949 to 2015, the total time series trend of disaster loss and loss rate increased first and then decreased, and in 2000 it was the critical point. The spatial distribution was heterogeneity, the intensity of single factor explanation was significantly different, and the interaction of multiple factors was nonlinear and enhanced. The distribution of cold hot spots on both sides of Hu Huanyong line is polarized and its center of gravity migrates northward. It is suggested that the government should strengthen the engineering and technical measures, such as removing drought and hail (northwest), removing drought and drainage of waterlogging (northeast), draining waterlogging and preventing freezing (central part), and pre-drainage platform (southeast coast). At the same time, northwest (environment) and northeast (China's granary) should be regarded as key protection areas for disaster prevention and mitigation, and special protection schemes should be formulated to ensure high grain yield and increase income in China.
【作者单位】：东北农业大学资源环境学院;中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所;中国地质大学土地科学技术学院;湖南科技大学资源环境与安全工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41571427) 中国农业科学院创新群体项目(Y2017JC33)~~
【分类号】：F326.11;X43

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