降雨天气下高速公路交通安全风险评估及应急管理能力研究
发布时间：2018-12-23 09:48
【摘要】：随着我国高速公路的飞速发展，高速公路的交通安全问题日益成为亟需解决的难题，高速公路交通事故后果严重，损失巨大，难以处理的显著特点，特别是，由于降雨，路况更加复杂，从而更容易造成交通事故的发生，对人民财产安全造成了极大的安全隐患。由于我国高速公路起步较晚，还缺乏对其的相关认识和研究，尤其是在降雨状况下的高速公路交通安全的研究更有待提升。 本文在总结分析国内外关于降雨天气下的高速公路交通安全运营生产的基础上对降雨条件下高速公路公路交通事故的特点进行分析，结合相关的数据资料，分析得出降雨天气下的高速公路安全行车机理，并以此为基础确定降雨天气时高速公路安全行驶的车速条件。 通过专家调查法以及累积比数logit模型这两种方法从单因素影响以及发生概率出发，对高速公路的交通事故风险进行评估。提出在不同的降雨等级状况下，汽车在高速公路行驶的理想最高时速。在处理应急状况时，通过层次分析法，根据列出的可能的各个应急问题的影响范围和可能造成的交通事故的严重程度等指标进行排序，，从中找出高速公路在应急管理中所迫切需要解决的问题。对于各个部门的应急管理能力，提出了相应的打分标准，对各个职能部门的管理能力进行评价，并对不足之处提出改进建议和行之有效的措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of expressway in our country, the problem of highway traffic safety has become a difficult problem to be solved day by day. The consequence of expressway traffic accident is serious, the loss is huge, and it is difficult to deal with, especially, because of rainfall, The road condition is more complex, thus causing traffic accidents more easily, and causing great hidden danger to people's property safety. Due to the late start of expressway in China, there is still a lack of related knowledge and research on it, especially the study of highway traffic safety under the condition of rainfall needs to be improved. On the basis of summing up and analyzing the operation and production of expressway traffic safety under rainfall weather at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the characteristics of expressway traffic accidents under rainfall conditions, and combines relevant data. The safe driving mechanism of freeway under rainfall weather is analyzed, and the speed conditions of safe driving of expressway under rainfall weather are determined on the basis of the analysis. Through expert investigation and cumulative ratio logit model, the traffic accident risk of expressway is evaluated from single factor and probability of occurrence. Under different rainfall levels, the ideal maximum speed of the vehicle on the highway is put forward. In dealing with the emergency situation, the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to rank the impact of possible emergency problems and the severity of possible traffic accidents. Find out the problems that need to be solved urgently in the emergency management of expressway. For the emergency management ability of each department, the corresponding scoring standard is put forward, the management ability of each functional department is evaluated, and the improvement suggestions and effective measures are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U492.8
本文编号：2389802
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of expressway in our country, the problem of highway traffic safety has become a difficult problem to be solved day by day. The consequence of expressway traffic accident is serious, the loss is huge, and it is difficult to deal with, especially, because of rainfall, The road condition is more complex, thus causing traffic accidents more easily, and causing great hidden danger to people's property safety. Due to the late start of expressway in China, there is still a lack of related knowledge and research on it, especially the study of highway traffic safety under the condition of rainfall needs to be improved. On the basis of summing up and analyzing the operation and production of expressway traffic safety under rainfall weather at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the characteristics of expressway traffic accidents under rainfall conditions, and combines relevant data. The safe driving mechanism of freeway under rainfall weather is analyzed, and the speed conditions of safe driving of expressway under rainfall weather are determined on the basis of the analysis. Through expert investigation and cumulative ratio logit model, the traffic accident risk of expressway is evaluated from single factor and probability of occurrence. Under different rainfall levels, the ideal maximum speed of the vehicle on the highway is put forward. In dealing with the emergency situation, the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to rank the impact of possible emergency problems and the severity of possible traffic accidents. Find out the problems that need to be solved urgently in the emergency management of expressway. For the emergency management ability of each department, the corresponding scoring standard is put forward, the management ability of each functional department is evaluated, and the improvement suggestions and effective measures are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U492.8
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