基于熵权—模糊对数优先规划理论的安全综合评价方法研究
发布时间：2018-12-25 08:17
【摘要】：随着国家经济的发展,人民的生活水平不断提高,在发展过程中各种类型的安全灾害事故时有发生,国家安全形势面临了前所未有的挑战,为了避免事故的发生或者降低发生的概率,降低事故后果的严重程度,安全评价是有效的应对途径之一,安全评价方法的有效性和合理性直接决定了安全评价结果的准确性。本文在前人的研究基础上,通过分析国内外安全评价方法发展现状,提出并应用了全新的安全评价方法。由于大多数安全评价的目标为复杂的多属性问题,因此建立评价指标体系,计算指标权重是一种有效的评价方法。随着模糊数学在安全评价中应用,本文首先以三角模糊数为切入点,介绍了模糊对数优先规划理论和熵权法求解指标权重的原理和方法,通过分析两种方法的优缺点,进行了优势互补,提出来熵权-模糊对数优先规划理论,并且将新提出的权重计算方法和模糊综合评价法结合,建立了全新的模糊综合评价模型。为了阐述方法的有效性和合理性,本文以地下车库火灾风险评估为基本算例,分别运用层次分析法和模糊对数优先规划理论进行地下车库火灾风险指标的权重计算和重要度排序。对比两者的计算过程和计算结果,不仅验证了模糊对数优先规划理论的结果的有效性,而且通过优缺点分析发现新提出的方法在决策过程中比层次分析法更加具有优越性。最后将新提出的评价模型应用到工程实例当中,本文选取合肥化工园区综合应急能力评价为例,首先通过化工园区应急能力的影响因素分析建立了评价指标体系,然后通过专家打分赋值,运用熵权-模糊优先规划理论进行各级影响指标的权重计算,最后应用模糊综合评价模型进行综合评价,最终该化工园区的评价结果为"良好",根据评价结果提出了对应的改进意见。
[Abstract]:With the development of national economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, various types of safety disasters and accidents occur from time to time in the process of development, and the national security situation is facing unprecedented challenges. In order to avoid the occurrence of accidents or reduce the probability of occurrence and reduce the severity of accident consequences, safety evaluation is one of the effective ways to deal with it. The validity and rationality of safety evaluation methods directly determine the accuracy of safety evaluation results. On the basis of previous research, this paper puts forward and applies a new safety evaluation method by analyzing the present situation of safety evaluation methods at home and abroad. Because the goal of most safety evaluation is complex multi-attribute problem, it is an effective evaluation method to establish evaluation index system and calculate index weight. With the application of fuzzy mathematics in safety evaluation, this paper firstly introduces the principle and method of fuzzy logarithmic priority programming theory and entropy weight method to solve the index weight, and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods. The theory of entropy weight-fuzzy logarithmic priority programming is put forward, and a new fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established by combining the new weight calculation method with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. In order to explain the validity and rationality of the method, this paper takes the fire risk assessment of underground garage as a basic example. The weight calculation and importance ranking of fire risk index of underground garage are carried out by using AHP and fuzzy logarithmic priority programming theory respectively. Comparing the calculation process and the results, the validity of the fuzzy logarithmic priority programming theory is verified, and the advantages and disadvantages of the new method are found to be more superior than the analytic hierarchy process in the decision-making process. Finally, the newly proposed evaluation model is applied to the engineering example. In this paper, the comprehensive emergency capacity evaluation of Hefei Chemical Industry Park is selected as an example. Firstly, the evaluation index system is established through the analysis of the influencing factors of the emergency response capacity of the chemical industry park. Then the weight of the influence index is calculated by using entropy weight and fuzzy priority programming theory, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is applied to the comprehensive evaluation. Finally, the evaluation result of the chemical industry park is "good". According to the evaluation results, the corresponding improvement suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X913
[Abstract]:With the development of national economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, various types of safety disasters and accidents occur from time to time in the process of development, and the national security situation is facing unprecedented challenges. In order to avoid the occurrence of accidents or reduce the probability of occurrence and reduce the severity of accident consequences, safety evaluation is one of the effective ways to deal with it. The validity and rationality of safety evaluation methods directly determine the accuracy of safety evaluation results. On the basis of previous research, this paper puts forward and applies a new safety evaluation method by analyzing the present situation of safety evaluation methods at home and abroad. Because the goal of most safety evaluation is complex multi-attribute problem, it is an effective evaluation method to establish evaluation index system and calculate index weight. With the application of fuzzy mathematics in safety evaluation, this paper firstly introduces the principle and method of fuzzy logarithmic priority programming theory and entropy weight method to solve the index weight, and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods. The theory of entropy weight-fuzzy logarithmic priority programming is put forward, and a new fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established by combining the new weight calculation method with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. In order to explain the validity and rationality of the method, this paper takes the fire risk assessment of underground garage as a basic example. The weight calculation and importance ranking of fire risk index of underground garage are carried out by using AHP and fuzzy logarithmic priority programming theory respectively. Comparing the calculation process and the results, the validity of the fuzzy logarithmic priority programming theory is verified, and the advantages and disadvantages of the new method are found to be more superior than the analytic hierarchy process in the decision-making process. Finally, the newly proposed evaluation model is applied to the engineering example. In this paper, the comprehensive emergency capacity evaluation of Hefei Chemical Industry Park is selected as an example. Firstly, the evaluation index system is established through the analysis of the influencing factors of the emergency response capacity of the chemical industry park. Then the weight of the influence index is calculated by using entropy weight and fuzzy priority programming theory, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is applied to the comprehensive evaluation. Finally, the evaluation result of the chemical industry park is "good". According to the evaluation results, the corresponding improvement suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X913
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