基于集对分析的长江危险品水上运输安全评价研究
发布时间：2018-12-27 17:09
【摘要】：长江作为我国重要的内河航道,具有运输成本低、运载量大的特点,与其他运输方式相比具有独特的优势。随着国民经济的快速发展、工农业生产及人民生活水平的不断提高,我国对石油、液化石油气及化学品原料等危险品的需求日益增长。而与普通货物相比,危险品具有易燃、爆炸、腐蚀、毒害及放射性等危害特性,对安全性要求高,在运输、装卸过程中稍有不慎,便有可能造成人员伤亡、财产损失和环境污染等严重后果,随着长江水上危险品运输的快速发展,发生危险品事故的风险或危险性也在不断增大,在“可持续发展”的指导思想下,长江危险品水上运输的安全问题备受社会各界关注。因而,对长江危险品水上运输的安全进行评价研究具有重要的现实意义。 本文以长江危险品水上运输评价为研究对象,通过分析长江危险品水上运输的的发展现状,并分析研究了长江危险品水上运输安全的影响要素。同时选取从人的因素、船的因素、环境因素、货物本身以及管理因素五个层面构建长江危险品水上运输安全评价指标体系,并根据相应规范及研究成果,给定了评价等级,同时选择组合权重计算方法来确定指标权重。 根据集对分析方法原理,以及长江危险品水上运输安全的评价涉及诸多不确定因素,运用集对分析方法来对长江危险品水上运输安全系统进行表达和刻画,建立长江危险品水上运输安全集对评价模型。引入安全度概念建立长江危险品水上运输安全评价指标的安全度等级,根据长江水上危险品运输的实际情况确定其安全度评价等级,即完成对长江危险品水上运输安全的集对综合评价。 以芜湖海事局管辖区域为例,运用建立的长江危险品水上运输安全集对综合评价模型计算出芜湖海事局水上危险品运输的联系数主值为0.284,对应的芜湖海事局水上危险品运输安全度评价处于较安全等级,说明芜湖海事局危险品水上运输的安全处于相对安全的水平。 通过上述研究,提出了一些提高长江危险品水上运输安全的对策,以期为长江危险品水上运输实现安全、绿色、可持续发展提供参考,论文采用的集对分析方法可在水上交通中推广应用,有一定的价值。
[Abstract]:As an important inland waterway in China, the Yangtze River has the characteristics of low transportation cost and large transportation capacity. With the rapid development of national economy and the continuous improvement of industrial and agricultural production and people's living standard, the demand for dangerous goods such as petroleum, liquefied petroleum gas and chemical raw materials in China is increasing day by day. Compared with ordinary goods, dangerous goods have the characteristics of flammability, explosion, corrosion, poison and radioactivity, and have high requirements for safety. A little carelessness in the course of transportation and loading and unloading may result in casualties. With the rapid development of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, the risk or risk of dangerous goods accidents is also increasing. Under the guiding ideology of "sustainable development", The safety of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River has been concerned by all walks of life. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to evaluate the safety of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River. This paper takes the evaluation of dangerous goods on the water of the Yangtze River as the research object, analyzes the present situation of the development of the transportation of dangerous goods on the water of the Yangtze River, and analyzes the factors that affect the safety of the transportation of dangerous goods on the water of the Yangtze River. At the same time, from five aspects of human factors, ship factors, environmental factors, cargo itself and management factors, the evaluation index system of dangerous goods transportation safety on the Yangtze River is constructed, and according to the corresponding norms and research results, the evaluation grade is given. At the same time, select the combination weight calculation method to determine the index weight. According to the principle of set pair analysis method and the uncertain factors involved in the evaluation of the safety of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, this paper uses the set pair analysis method to express and depict the safety system of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River. A safety set pair evaluation model of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River was established. The concept of safety degree is introduced to establish the safety grade of the safety evaluation index of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, and according to the actual situation of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, the safety degree evaluation grade is determined. That is, the completion of the Yangtze River dangerous goods on the water transport safety set pair comprehensive evaluation. Taking the area under the jurisdiction of Wuhu Marine Bureau as an example, the main value of the connection number of the dangerous goods transportation on the water of Wuhu Marine Bureau is 0.284, which is calculated by using the comprehensive evaluation model of the safety set pairs of dangerous goods on the water of the Yangtze River. The corresponding safety evaluation of dangerous goods transportation on water in Wuhu Marine Bureau is relatively safe, which indicates that the safety of dangerous goods transportation on water in Wuhu Marine Bureau is at a relatively safe level. Through the above research, some countermeasures are put forward to improve the safety of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, in order to provide a reference for the safety, green and sustainable development of the transport of dangerous goods on the Yangtze River. The set pair analysis method adopted in this paper can be popularized and applied in water transportation and has certain value.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698
本文编号：2393354
[Abstract]:As an important inland waterway in China, the Yangtze River has the characteristics of low transportation cost and large transportation capacity. With the rapid development of national economy and the continuous improvement of industrial and agricultural production and people's living standard, the demand for dangerous goods such as petroleum, liquefied petroleum gas and chemical raw materials in China is increasing day by day. Compared with ordinary goods, dangerous goods have the characteristics of flammability, explosion, corrosion, poison and radioactivity, and have high requirements for safety. A little carelessness in the course of transportation and loading and unloading may result in casualties. With the rapid development of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, the risk or risk of dangerous goods accidents is also increasing. Under the guiding ideology of "sustainable development", The safety of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River has been concerned by all walks of life. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to evaluate the safety of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River. This paper takes the evaluation of dangerous goods on the water of the Yangtze River as the research object, analyzes the present situation of the development of the transportation of dangerous goods on the water of the Yangtze River, and analyzes the factors that affect the safety of the transportation of dangerous goods on the water of the Yangtze River. At the same time, from five aspects of human factors, ship factors, environmental factors, cargo itself and management factors, the evaluation index system of dangerous goods transportation safety on the Yangtze River is constructed, and according to the corresponding norms and research results, the evaluation grade is given. At the same time, select the combination weight calculation method to determine the index weight. According to the principle of set pair analysis method and the uncertain factors involved in the evaluation of the safety of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, this paper uses the set pair analysis method to express and depict the safety system of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River. A safety set pair evaluation model of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River was established. The concept of safety degree is introduced to establish the safety grade of the safety evaluation index of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, and according to the actual situation of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, the safety degree evaluation grade is determined. That is, the completion of the Yangtze River dangerous goods on the water transport safety set pair comprehensive evaluation. Taking the area under the jurisdiction of Wuhu Marine Bureau as an example, the main value of the connection number of the dangerous goods transportation on the water of Wuhu Marine Bureau is 0.284, which is calculated by using the comprehensive evaluation model of the safety set pairs of dangerous goods on the water of the Yangtze River. The corresponding safety evaluation of dangerous goods transportation on water in Wuhu Marine Bureau is relatively safe, which indicates that the safety of dangerous goods transportation on water in Wuhu Marine Bureau is at a relatively safe level. Through the above research, some countermeasures are put forward to improve the safety of dangerous goods transportation on the Yangtze River, in order to provide a reference for the safety, green and sustainable development of the transport of dangerous goods on the Yangtze River. The set pair analysis method adopted in this paper can be popularized and applied in water transportation and has certain value.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698
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