加权灰色理论在海损事故分析与预测中的应用
发布时间：2019-01-19 20:53
【摘要】：为增强海上交通运输安全,运用灰色系统理论中传统的灰色关联理论和加权灰色关联原理,分别对辽宁、天津和宁波水域2007—2013年的船舶交通事故进行分析,寻求船舶交通事故的主要致因。将传统灰色关联结果与加权灰色关联结果进行对比,验证加权灰色关联理论具有更好的准确性和层次性。建立3处水域船舶交通事故总数的预测模型,对不同水域未来的交通形势进行预测;将预测模型结果与实际数据相比较,得到其预测精度,以期获得该预测模型短期预测精度的大致范围,从而为海上交通事故的预防提供指导和借鉴。
[Abstract]:In order to enhance the safety of maritime transportation, the ship traffic accidents in Liaoning, Tianjin and Ningbo waters from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed by using the traditional grey relation theory and weighted grey correlation theory in the grey system theory. To seek the main causes of ship traffic accidents. By comparing the traditional grey correlation results with the weighted grey correlation results, it is proved that the weighted grey correlation theory is more accurate and hierarchical. The prediction model of the total number of ship traffic accidents in three water areas is established to predict the traffic situation in different water areas in the future. By comparing the results of the prediction model with the actual data, the prediction accuracy is obtained, in order to obtain the approximate range of the short-term prediction accuracy of the prediction model, thus providing guidance and reference for the prevention of maritime traffic accidents.
【作者单位】： 大连海事大学航海学院;国家海洋局东海分局;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(3132015007) 辽宁省自然科学基金(2014025008) 马六甲和新加坡海峡超大型船舶航行风险分析及对策研究项目(01831508) 东海至宫古海峡航海保障研究项目(80716004)
【分类号】：U698.6
本文编号：2411741
[Abstract]:In order to enhance the safety of maritime transportation, the ship traffic accidents in Liaoning, Tianjin and Ningbo waters from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed by using the traditional grey relation theory and weighted grey correlation theory in the grey system theory. To seek the main causes of ship traffic accidents. By comparing the traditional grey correlation results with the weighted grey correlation results, it is proved that the weighted grey correlation theory is more accurate and hierarchical. The prediction model of the total number of ship traffic accidents in three water areas is established to predict the traffic situation in different water areas in the future. By comparing the results of the prediction model with the actual data, the prediction accuracy is obtained, in order to obtain the approximate range of the short-term prediction accuracy of the prediction model, thus providing guidance and reference for the prevention of maritime traffic accidents.
【作者单位】： 大连海事大学航海学院;国家海洋局东海分局;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(3132015007) 辽宁省自然科学基金(2014025008) 马六甲和新加坡海峡超大型船舶航行风险分析及对策研究项目(01831508) 东海至宫古海峡航海保障研究项目(80716004)
【分类号】：U698.6
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1 罗晓利;李海燕;;基于灰色关联理论的空管人误分类分析[J];中国民航大学学报;2009年04期
，本文编号：2411741
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