重大突发事件的动态协同应急决策

发布时间：2019-03-01 16:30

【摘要】：为实现有关重大突发事件应急的科学决策,综合运用协同矩阵、多属性决策理论,建立多部门参与的动态协同应急决策方法。将重大突发事件的协同应急决策问题抽象成多目标优化模型;考虑部门依赖,协同各部门目标,优选初始化应急处置方案;考虑情景分析动态协同决策过程可能出现的变化,如方案评价调整、部门新增方案、加入协同部门、协同部门撤出等,重构突发事件动态协同应急系统拓扑结构,动态修正应急处置方案。研究结果表明:用该方法可根据协同应急决策过程变化,通过更新计算应急处置方案评价,实现应急处置方案的动态调整,从而提高应急决策的有效性。
[Abstract]:In order to realize the scientific decision-making about the emergency of the major emergencies, the cooperative matrix and the multi-attribute decision-making theory are integrated, and the multi-department participating dynamic collaborative emergency decision-making method is established. the collaborative emergency decision-making problem of the major emergencies is abstracted into a multi-objective optimization model; the department dependence is considered, the objectives of various departments are coordinated, and the emergency treatment scheme is preferably initialized; and the change of the dynamic collaborative decision-making process of the scenario analysis is considered, such as the adjustment of the scheme evaluation, The new scheme of the department is added, the coordination department is added, the coordination department is withdrawn, and the like, the topology structure of the emergency dynamic collaborative emergency system is reconstructed, and the emergency treatment scheme is dynamically modified. The results show that, according to the change of the collaborative emergency decision-making process, the dynamic adjustment of the emergency treatment plan can be realized by updating the evaluation of the emergency treatment plan, so as to improve the effectiveness of the emergency decision-making.
【作者单位】：水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学);三峡大学水利与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助(51379110) 水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室开放基金资助(2014KSD08)
【分类号】：X928

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