道路运输气体类危化品泄漏扩散及警戒范围模型研究

发布时间：2019-03-06 07:08

【摘要】：气体类危化品具有毒性、易燃、易爆等危险特性,在运输过程中一旦发生泄漏,极易引发中毒、火灾、爆炸等事故,严重威胁事故发生地附近居民的生命和财产安全。危化品运输车辆就像一个个移动的危险源,风险很大,因此在事故发生后,如何尽快确定事故警戒范围,科学指导群众疏散,有效开展应急救援显得至关重要。本文以气体类危化品为研究对象,以毒性灾害分析为研究重点,以浙江松阳县液氯泄漏事故为案例背景,构建模拟环境,运用ALOHA软件模拟不同情境下液氯泄漏扩散态势,分析由于扩散产生的危害影响范围和由此而在应急救援过程中设立的警戒范围,确定影响警戒范围的关键因素。在此基础上,分别应用EXCEL和SPSS统计软件建立警戒范围的一元回归模型和多元回归模型,并对模型有效性进行检验。主要研究内容如下： (1)本文在查阅大量文献的基础上,总结气体泄漏扩散的国内外研究现状,并结合泄漏源模型和气体扩散模型,分析归纳泄漏影响因素和扩散影响因素,为后文奠定理论基础。 (2)通过网络、项目调研等多种渠道收集整理了国内219起气体类危化品泄漏事故案例,研究事故致因机理,并从事故发生原因、事故特征等方面进行统计分析,同时对泄漏事故引发灾害进行深入分析。 (3)以浙江松阳县液氯泄漏事故为背景搭建模拟环境,应用ALOHA软件模拟不同情境下液氯泄漏扩散的警戒范围,在此基础上,找出影响警戒范围的关键因素。 (4)应用EXCEL分别进行风速、温度、泄漏孔径与警戒范围的一元回归分析,在此基础上,应用SPSS软件建立警戒范围的多元回归模型,并对模型进行有效性检验。最后,从应急组织构建角度给出了道路运输液氯泄漏事故应急响应建议。
[Abstract]:Gas dangerous chemicals have toxic, flammable, explosive and other dangerous characteristics. Once leakage occurs in the transportation process, it is easy to cause poisoning, fire, explosion and other accidents, which seriously threaten the lives and property safety of residents near the place where the accident occurred. Dangerous chemicals transport vehicles are like moving dangerous sources, so it is very important to determine the warning range of accidents as soon as possible after the accident, guide the evacuation of the masses scientifically, and carry out the emergency rescue effectively. In this paper, gas hazardous chemicals are taken as the research object, toxicity hazard analysis as the research focus, and the liquid chlorine leakage accident in Songjiang County, Zhejiang Province as the case background, the simulated environment is constructed, and the diffusion situation of liquid chlorine leakage in different situations is simulated by using ALOHA software. The range of hazard affected by diffusion and the warning range set up in the process of emergency rescue are analyzed, and the key factors affecting the range of warning are determined. On this basis, the EXCEL and SPSS statistical software are used to establish the single regression model and the multiple regression model of the alert range, and the validity of the model is tested. The main research contents are as follows: (1) on the basis of consulting a large number of literatures, this paper summarizes the research status of gas leakage and diffusion at home and abroad, and combines the leakage source model and the gas diffusion model. The influencing factors of leakage and diffusion are analyzed and summarized in order to lay a theoretical foundation for the following paper. (2) by means of network, project investigation and other channels, 219 cases of leakage accidents of dangerous chemicals in China have been collected and sorted out, and the mechanism of accidents has been studied, and statistical analysis has been carried out from the aspects of accident causes, accident characteristics, and so on. At the same time, the disaster caused by leakage accident is analyzed in depth. (3) taking the liquid chlorine leakage accident in Songjiang County of Zhejiang Province as the background, the simulation environment is set up, and the warning range of liquid chlorine leakage and diffusion in different situations is simulated by using ALOHA software. On this basis, the key factors affecting the warning range are found out. (4) univariate regression analysis of wind speed, temperature, leak aperture and warning range is carried out by EXCEL. On this basis, the multiple regression model of warning range is established by using SPSS software, and the validity of the model is tested. Finally, suggestions for emergency response of liquid chlorine leakage in road transportation are given from the point of view of emergency organization.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U492.8;U492.336.3

【参考文献】