城市轨道交通运营安全设备因素的风险评价研究

发布时间：2019-04-07 16:40

【摘要】：随着“十三五”规划的到来,我国城市轨道交通行业进入高速发展时期,城市轨道交通网络化运营已成为趋势。而时刻保持健康状态的设备系统是城市轨道交通运营安全的基础和前提,因此,对城市轨道交通设备因素进行风险评价,提高设备系统的安全性是目前城市轨道交通需要重视的问题。本文首先介绍了目前我国城市轨道交通的发展情况,然后通过对国内外的城市轨道交通运营事故的统计分析,探讨城市轨道交通运营事故等级、类型的分布规律,对城市轨道交通运营事故原因进行分析,得出设备因素故障是导致城市轨道交通发生运营事故最主要的原因。通过查阅相关文献以及实地调研,详细研究了城市轨道交通设备系统的构成要素,以及其易发生故障的部位和致因机理。其次通过设置调查问卷的方式咨询有关专家后,对城市轨道交通设备系统各风险因子进行辨识,算出各个风险因子的指标值,并筛选出指标值较大的风险因子作为城市轨道交通设备系统的风险评价指标,以此方法最终得到车辆系统故障、机电系统故障、供电系统故障、通信信号系统故障4个二级指标;车体系统故障、牵引系统故障、车辆走行装置故障、制动风源系统故障、主变电所故障、牵引供电系统故障、动力照明供电系统故障、自动电梯扶梯系统故障、屏蔽门与防淹门系统故障、环境与设备监控系统故障、通信系统技术故障、传输系统故障、ATS故障、ATO故障和ATP故障15个三级指标。以某市城市轨道交通为例进行了实例分析,利用结构方程模型,构建了城市轨道交通设备因素风险评价模型,运用AMOS21软件对模型进行计算,得到了各级风险指标之间存在内在关系,以及二级风险指标对运营安全的影响程度各不相同,验证了该评价指标体系具有客观性以及实际可行性。最后以上述的研究分析为理论依据,从具体操作层面出发,根据设备系统中各潜变量风险程度的不同,对设备系统进行分级管理;从企业管理层面考虑,结合RAMS理论,构建了城市轨道交通设备RAMS管理体系并提出相应的管理策略。
[Abstract]:With the coming of the 13th five-year Plan, China's urban rail transit industry has entered a period of high-speed development, and the network operation of urban rail transit has become a trend. The equipment system that keeps the state of health at all times is the foundation and premise of the operation safety of the urban rail transit. Therefore, the risk evaluation of the equipment factors of the urban rail transit is carried out. Improving the safety of equipment system is an important problem in urban rail transit. This paper first introduces the development of urban rail transit in China at present, and then, through the statistical analysis of domestic and foreign urban rail transit operation accidents, discusses the distribution law of the grade and type of urban rail transit operation accidents. By analyzing the causes of operation accidents of urban rail transit, it is concluded that equipment failure is the main cause of operation accidents of urban rail transit. Based on the relevant literature and field investigation, this paper studies in detail the components of the urban rail transit equipment system, as well as the location and cause mechanism of the failure. Secondly, after consulting relevant experts by setting up questionnaire, each risk factor of urban rail transit equipment system is identified, and the index value of each risk factor is calculated. And the risk factor with large index value is selected as the risk evaluation index of urban rail transit equipment system. Finally, the vehicle system fault, electromechanical system fault and power supply system fault can be obtained by this method. Four secondary indicators of communication signal system failure; Car body system fault, traction system fault, vehicle running device fault, brake wind source system fault, main substation fault, traction power supply system fault, power lighting power supply system fault, escalator system fault, The failure of shield door and flood gate system, the fault of monitoring system of environment and equipment, the technical fault of communication system, the fault of transmission system, the fault of ATS, the fault of ATO and the fault of ATP. Taking an example of urban rail transit as an example, this paper constructs a risk assessment model of urban rail transit equipment by using the structural equation model, and calculates the model by using AMOS21 software. It is found that there is an inherent relationship between the risk indicators at all levels and the influence degree of the secondary risk indicators on operational safety is different, which verifies the objectivity and feasibility of the evaluation index system. Finally, according to the above-mentioned research and analysis as the theoretical basis, from the specific operational level, according to the different risk degree of each latent variable in the equipment system, the equipment system is managed at different levels. Considering the enterprise management and combining with the theory of RAMS, the RAMS management system of urban rail transit equipment is constructed and the corresponding management strategy is put forward.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U239.5;U298

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