鹰厦铁路降水诱发地质灾害概率预报模型及应用

发布时间：2019-05-24 00:42

【摘要】：降水是铁路地质灾害的重要触发因子,由于降水引发的地质灾害对铁路运输安全造成重大的经济损失。鹰厦铁路由于其特殊的地形及气候条件,使该线成为全国地质灾害发生较频繁、较严重的铁路之一。利用南昌铁路局2007—2012年辖区内的地质灾害资料,统计鹰厦铁路地质灾害的时空分布特征。根据不同降水类型造成的铁路地质灾害特点不同,进一步研究铁路地质灾害与降水的关系。引入10 min最大降水量、当日最大小时降水量、连续降水量和前20 d累积降水量等降水量因子,运用因子相关性分析和逻辑回归方法筛选对灾害发生贡献率较大的降水量因子,分区段建立鹰厦铁路地质灾害概率预报模型。运用该模型对2013年5月20-22日一次大暴雨过程诱发的地质灾害进行预报,预报准确率达86%,模型应用效果较理想,可为铁路安全气象服务工作提供技术支持。
[Abstract]:Precipitation is an important trigger factor of railway geological disasters, and the geological disasters caused by precipitation cause great economic losses to the safety of railway transportation. Because of its special topographic and climatic conditions, Yingxia Railway has become one of the more frequent and serious geological disasters in China. Based on the geological hazard data of Nanchang Railway Bureau from 2007 to 2012, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of geological disasters in Yingxia Railway are counted. According to the different characteristics of railway geological disasters caused by different precipitation types, the relationship between railway geological disasters and precipitation is further studied. The precipitation factors, such as the maximum precipitation of 10 min, the maximum hourly precipitation of the day, the continuous precipitation and the cumulative precipitation of the first 20 days, are introduced, and the precipitation factors with large contribution rate to the occurrence of disasters are selected by means of factor correlation analysis and logical regression method. The probability prediction model of geological hazards of Yingxia railway is established in the regional section. The model is used to predict the geological disasters induced by a heavy rain process from May 20 to 22, 2013. The prediction accuracy is 86%. The application effect of the model is ideal, which can provide technical support for railway safety meteorological service.
【作者单位】：江西省气象服务中心;中国气象局公共气象服务中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(40971016)
【分类号】：U298;P426.616

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