城市灾害链动力学演变模型与灾害链风险评估方法的研究

发布时间：2019-05-24 11:00

【摘要】：摘要：随着城市化进程的加快,城市灾害的链式效应越来越明显,因为灾害链式效应所造成的损失也越来越巨大。因此以灾害链为核心对城市灾害进行风险评估,才能全面、系统地把握城市灾害的隐患程度,为构建城市综合防灾减灾体系、以及城市灾害风险管理提供可靠的理论依据。本文针对城市灾害链和风险评估当中的一些关键问题作了以下几个方面的研究： (1)对城市灾害链的形成机理进行了分析,结果表明在致灾因子作用下各承灾体之间复杂的相互作用关系是城市灾害链产生的直接原因。对四种典型城市灾害的链式效应进行了分析,指出城市灾害链具有复杂的网络结构特征。城市灾害链的能量效应分析表明致灾体所释放出的激发能,与各承灾体能量的耦合作用是产生城市灾害链的根本原因。 (2)对城市灾害链的演化规律进行了分析,城市灾害链在演变过程中具有阶段性孕育特征,在时间效应上具有持续性影响和瞬时性影响两种不同的演化行为。以灾害链的演化规律为基础,建立了基于复杂网络的灾害链数学模型,描述了各灾害节点的灾害损失速率和灾害损失度,并提出了基于网络节点脆弱性和连接边脆弱性的断链减灾模式。 (3)以城市灾害链系统动力机制描述为基础,先进行了灾害场景的设定,并考虑时滞性的影响,建立了城市灾害链和城市灾害管理的系统动力学模型。并利用Vensim对城市灾害链系统的演化过程进行了仿真分析,得到了主要承灾体易损性与灾害损失速率之间的影响关系,指出降低城市生命线的易损性是降低在城市灾害中人员伤亡率最有效的方法。城市灾害管理系统动力学模型表明了灾害与经济之间相互影响、相辅相成的关系,指出强调灾害管理系统的溢出效应能提高减灾的有效性。 (4)分别建立了人口、建筑物和生命线系统等城市主要承灾体的灾损敏感性评估模型。用人体的忍耐力和应急自救能力表征了人在渐发性灾害和突发生灾害时的灾损敏感性,用建筑物的结构指数和使用时间指数表征了建筑物的灾损敏感性指数。利用均衡熵和脆性熵理论分别对单功能网络的脆弱性和各生命线子系统脆性关联程度进行了表征,建立了生命线系统的灾损敏感性评估模型。 (5)从基础应灾能力和专项应灾能力两个方面,建立了多层次的城市应灾能力评价指标体系。在对指标体系进行可量化处理的基础上,采用改进层次分析法确定了各指标的权重系数。考虑到城市应灾能力评价指标的模糊性和层次性,建立了基于模糊模式识别的模糊综合评判模型,通过构造出各指标的最优隶属度,使得城市应灾能力的评价更加科学和准确。 (6)在分析多灾种风险评估和供应链风险评估方法的基础上,运用贝叶斯公式得到各节点灾害损失等级的联合概率分布,构建了城市自然灾害链的风险评估模型；以多米诺效应为核心建立了城市技术灾害链的风险评估模型。并通过应用实例表明所建立的模型与实际情况具有较高的吻合性,说明了模型的实用性。
[Abstract]:Abstract: With the acceleration of the process of urbanization, the chain effect of the urban disaster is becoming more and more obvious, as the damage caused by the chain effect of the disasters is also becoming more and more significant. Therefore, the risk assessment of the urban disaster is carried out by using the disaster chain as the core, so as to comprehensively and systematically grasp the hidden danger degree of the urban disaster, and provide a reliable theoretical basis for the construction of the comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction system of the city and the urban disaster risk management. In this paper, some key problems in urban disaster chain and risk assessment are studied in the following aspects: (1) The formation mechanism of the urban disaster chain is divided The results show that the complex interaction between the catacities under the action of the disaster-induced factor is the direct origin of the urban disaster chain. The chain effect of four typical urban disasters is analyzed, and it is pointed out that the urban disaster chain has a complex network structure. The energy effect analysis of the urban disaster chain shows that the excitation energy released by the catastrophic body and the coupling of the energy of the cataclysm are the fundamental of the production of the urban disaster chain. (2) The evolution law of the urban disaster chain is analyzed, and the urban disaster chain has the characteristics of periodic inoculation in the course of evolution, and has the effects of persistence and instantaneity on the time effect. Based on the evolution law of the disaster chain, the mathematical model of the disaster chain based on the complex network is established, the disaster loss rate and the disaster loss degree of each disaster node are described, and the break chain reduction based on the vulnerability of the network node and the vulnerability of the connection edge is put forward. (3) Based on the description of the dynamic mechanism of the urban disaster chain system, the setting of the disaster scene is first carried out, and the influence of the time lag is considered, and the system of the urban disaster chain and the urban disaster management is established. In this paper, the evolution of the urban disaster chain system is simulated and analyzed by using the Vensim, and the relationship between the vulnerability of the main disaster and the rate of disaster loss is obtained. It is pointed out that the reduction of the vulnerability of the lifeline of the city is the lowest in the urban disaster. The dynamic model of the urban disaster management system shows the interaction and mutually reinforcing relationship between the disaster and the economy, and points out that the spillover effect of the disaster management system can be improved. the effectiveness of the disaster is: (4) the disaster losses of the main catacities of the cities such as the population, the building and the lifeline system have been established respectively The sensitivity of the building is characterized by the endurance of human body and the ability of emergency self-help to characterize the disaster-loss sensitivity of human in the event of the occurrence of a disaster and the occurrence of a disaster. The structure index of the building and the use time index are used to characterize the building. The vulnerability of the single function network and the degree of brittleness of the lifeline subsystem are characterized by the equilibrium entropy and the brittle-entropy theory, and the disaster loss of the lifeline system is established. The sensitivity assessment model (5) has set up a multi-level city from two aspects of basic disaster response capacity and special disaster response capacity. The evaluation index system of the disaster capacity is based on the quantitative analysis of the index system, which is determined by the improved analytic hierarchy process. The weight coefficient of each index is given. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on the fuzzy pattern recognition is established in consideration of the fuzziness and the level of the evaluation index of the city response capacity. The optimal membership degree of each index is constructed, so that the urban disaster response capacity can be reduced. The evaluation is more scientific and accurate. (6) Based on the analysis of the risk assessment and the risk assessment method of the supply chain, the joint probability distribution of the disaster loss level of each node is obtained by using the Bayesian formula, and the urban self-evaluation is constructed. The risk assessment model of the disaster chain is the core of the domino effect. The risk assessment model of the operation disaster chain is presented. The application examples show that the established model is in good agreement with the actual situation.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X4

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