地铁运营安全风险评价体系的研究

发布时间：2019-05-27 15:57

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展，城市化水平越来越高，为了解决城市地面交通拥堵问题，各地掀起了地铁建设的热潮。由于地铁在运营的过程中造成了人流的大量聚集，一旦发生事故，后果比较严重，因此地铁运营安全问题逐渐成为人们关注的焦点。如果能对地铁运营系统做出有效的风险评价，便可以做到事前控制，预防事故的发生。本文首先通过对国内外地铁运营事故进行统计分析，根据其分析结果确定了地铁运营事故的主要类型及导致地铁事故的主要原因，根据事故致因理论，把影响地铁运营的风险因素划分为人、设备设施、环境和管理四个方面。其次根据系统安全理论，运用解析结构模型对影响地铁运营安全的十个主要风险因素进行层次划分，确定其对系统风险水平的影响程度。再次构建了适用于我国地铁运营系统的风险评估模型。在该模型中首先运用基于三角模糊数的层次分析法，，计算各风险指标的权重，在计算过程中为了尽量避免评价人员主观因素对评价结果的影响，本文根据各评价人员在相关领域的工作年限，设定相应的权重值。在量化系统及子系统的风险方面，微观上运用风险分级评价法对人、设备设施、环境和管理四个方面的风险进行等级划分，宏观上利用模糊综合评价法对整个系统的风险水平进行量化。从而为地铁运营管理者做出科学的管理决策提供客观的依据，提高整个地铁运营系统的安全水平。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy in our country, the level of urbanization is getting higher and higher. In order to solve the problem of urban ground traffic congestion, the upsurge of subway construction has been set off all over the world. Because of the large number of people gathering in the process of subway operation, once the accident occurs, the consequences are more serious, so the safety of subway operation has gradually become the focus of attention. If we can make an effective risk assessment to the subway operation system, we can control it in advance and prevent the occurrence of accidents. In this paper, through the statistical analysis of subway operation accidents at home and abroad, according to the analysis results, the main types of subway operation accidents and the main causes of subway accidents are determined, according to the accident cause theory, The risk factors affecting subway operation are divided into four aspects: human, equipment and facilities, environment and management. Secondly, according to the system safety theory, the analytical structure model is used to divide the ten main risk factors that affect the subway operation safety, and the influence degree on the system risk level is determined. Thirdly, a risk assessment model suitable for subway operation system in China is constructed. In this model, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based on triangular fuzzy number is used to calculate the weight of each risk index, in order to avoid the influence of subjective factors on the evaluation results as far as possible. According to the working years of each evaluator in related fields, the corresponding weight value is set in this paper. In terms of quantifying the risks of systems and subsystems, the risk classification method is used to grade the risks of human, equipment and facilities, environment and management. Macroscopically, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to quantify the risk level of the whole system. So as to provide an objective basis for subway operation managers to make scientific management decisions and improve the safety level of the whole subway operation system.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U231;U298

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