城市道路交通安全状态监测指标体系构建

发布时间：2019-06-02 14:39

【摘要】：近年来城市居民生活水平和经济购买能力快速提高,拥有私家车的家庭迅速增多,加剧了城市道路拥堵,道路交通状况变得更加复杂。交通出行总量日趋变大,交通事故发生的概率也随之变大,这严重威胁了人们的生命和财产安全。为了提高城市道路交通安全水平,道路交通安全管理部门需要掌握城市交通安全状态并对它进行监测,了解交通安全隐患,相关部门可以对症下药采取针对性措施来提高城市道路交通安全水平。本文基于此背景建立了包含3个一级指标,12个二级指标的城市道路交通安全状态监测指标体系本文首先分析驾驶员行为、交通流、天气、道路、管理政策等因素对城市道路交通安全状态的影响,并考虑数据的可获得性、监测的周期性确定最初指标。通过专家打分法对指标体系进行初步筛选。目前国内外学者对交通安全状态监测和评价普遍采用层次分析法确定监测指标权重,这种方法受到专家工作经验和主观判断影响,不利于对城市道路交通安全进行客观监测评价。粗糙集是以数学集合论为基础的数据挖掘工具,其优势在于不受外界主观因素影响,从历史数据中分析挖掘目标的隐含规律,此外粗糙集工具还可以对不完善数据信息进行修补,约减数据保留最精简的信息。因此本文将主观赋权法中专家的知识经验与客观赋权法中交通监测数据的内在规律相结合,提出了基于AHP法和粗糙集的城市道路交通安全状态监测指标权重计算方法,并选择在、河南省焦作市进行指标体系应用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the living standard and economic purchasing ability of urban residents have improved rapidly, and the number of families owning private cars has increased rapidly, which has aggravated the congestion of urban roads and made the road traffic situation more complex. The total amount of traffic travel is becoming larger and larger, and the probability of traffic accidents is also increasing, which seriously threatens the safety of people's lives and property. In order to improve the level of urban road traffic safety, the road traffic safety management department needs to master the state of urban traffic safety and monitor it, and understand the hidden dangers of traffic safety. Relevant departments can take targeted measures to improve the level of urban road traffic safety. Based on this background, this paper establishes a monitoring index system of urban road traffic safety, which includes 3 first-level indicators and 12 second-level indicators. This paper first analyzes driver behavior, traffic flow, weather and road. The influence of management policy and other factors on the safety state of urban road traffic, and considering the availability of data, the periodicity of monitoring to determine the initial indicators. The index system was screened by expert scoring method. At present, scholars at home and abroad generally use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weight of monitoring indexes for traffic safety condition monitoring and evaluation, which is affected by the working experience and subjective judgment of experts. It is not conducive to the objective monitoring and evaluation of urban road traffic safety. Rough set is a data mining tool based on mathematical set theory. Its advantage is that it is not affected by external subjective factors and analyzes the implicit law of mining objectives from historical data. In addition, rough set tools can repair imperfect data information and reduce data to retain the most concise information. Therefore, this paper combines the knowledge and experience of experts in subjective weighting method with the inherent law of traffic monitoring data in objective weighting method, and puts forward a weight calculation method of urban road traffic safety monitoring index based on AHP method and rough set. And choose in Jiaozuo City, Henan Province for the application of the index system.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U492.8

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