考虑测量误差的步进加速退化试验建模与剩余寿命估计

发布时间：2018-03-24 06:22

本文选题：概率论　切入点：随机过程　出处：《兵工学报》2017年08期

【摘要】：步进应力加速退化试验已发展成高可靠、长寿命产品可靠性评估与剩余寿命估计的主要试验方法。为研究测量误差在基于步进应力加速退化试验方法剩余寿命估计中的影响,建立了基于Wiener过程的考虑个体差异和测量误差的退化模型。将Wiener过程的漂移系数随机化描述个体差异,在首达时间意义下得到了寿命分布的概率密度函数。基于极大似然估计法对模型中引入的未知参数进行估计。采用蒙特卡洛方法对激光器的性能退化进行了仿真研究。研究结果表明,考虑测量误差的退化模型的模型拟合性和剩余寿命估计精度都优于不考虑测量误差的方法,可以提高可靠性估计的精度与剩余寿命预测的准确性。
[Abstract]:Step stress accelerated degradation test has been developed into the main test method for reliability evaluation and residual life estimation of long life products. In order to study the effect of measurement error on residual life estimation of step stress accelerated degradation test method, A degenerate model considering individual difference and measurement error based on Wiener process is established. The drift coefficient of Wiener process is randomized to describe individual difference. The probability density function of lifetime distribution is obtained in the sense of first arrival time. The unknown parameters introduced in the model are estimated based on maximum likelihood estimation method. The performance degradation of laser is simulated by Monte Carlo method. Research. The results of the study show that. The model fitting and residual life estimation accuracy of the degenerate model considering measurement error are better than the method without considering measurement error, which can improve the accuracy of reliability estimation and residual life prediction.
【作者单位】：燕山大学先进锻压成形技术与科学教育部重点实验室;燕山大学河北省重型机械流体动力传输与控制重点实验室;
【分类号】：TB302

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