遇险船舶搜寻区域的选取优化

发布时间：2018-02-14 20:11

本文关键词： 搜寻蒙特卡洛算法概率论选择最小二乘法　出处：《大连海事大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济的发展,我国海洋事业的发展空前蓬勃,船舶的保有量也逐年增长,而复杂多变的海洋环境又造成了海难的频频发生,因此船舶安全成为了海洋事业发展的重要环节。船舶在海上遇险后,提高海上搜救成功率是国内外相关学者所努力研究的课题。搜寻区域的确定和救助船舶的搜寻能力是决定搜救成功率的两个重要因素,本文从搜寻区域的确定角度出发,在原有确定海区方法的基础上,提出了对搜寻区域选择的优化,从而达到提升搜寻效率的目的。为了对遇险船舶搜寻区域的选取进行优化,本文通过对遇险船舶受环境因素的影响进行分析,利用蒙特卡洛算法对遇险船舶的漂移进行预测;根据预测后的粒子分布情况拟合出概率分布密度函数,利用该函数确定优先搜寻的海域;采用优化后的非线性最小二乘法拟合海域面积与时间的关系,列出搜寻行动方程。首先获取船舶资料和气象资料,建立数据库,利用VC编程技术开发遇险船舶搜寻区域模拟系统,连接气象数据库模拟遇险船舶在海上漂移的过程,并利用本文的理论方法确定遇险船舶的整体搜寻区域和优先搜寻的区域,通过程序实现验证区域选择优化的可行性。通过模拟遇险船舶的漂移情况,可以确定搜寻海域;从确定的搜寻海域中找到包含概率最高的子区域优先搜寻,可以有效提高整体搜寻效率。本论文的研究成果对于遇险船舶搜寻过程中搜寻区域的选取提供了一定的参考价值。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy, the development of China's marine industry is booming, the number of ships is increasing year by year, and the complex and changeable marine environment has caused frequent maritime disasters. Therefore, ship safety has become an important link in the development of marine undertakings. How to improve the success rate of maritime search and rescue is an important research topic for relevant scholars at home and abroad. The determination of search area and the search ability of salvage ship are two important factors that determine the success rate of search and rescue. This paper sets out from the point of view of determining the search area. On the basis of the original method of determining the sea area, the optimization of the search area selection is put forward to improve the search efficiency, in order to optimize the search area of ships in distress. In this paper, by analyzing the influence of environmental factors on ships in distress, the drift of ships in distress is predicted by Monte Carlo algorithm, and the probability distribution density function is fitted according to the predicted particle distribution. The optimized nonlinear least square method is used to fit the relationship between sea area area and time, and the search action equation is listed. Firstly, the ship data and meteorological data are obtained, and the database is established. Using VC programming technology to develop a ship in distress search area simulation system, connecting the meteorological database to simulate the process of ship in distress drift at sea, and using the theory and method of this paper to determine the overall search area and priority search area of the ship in distress. By simulating the drift of ships in distress, the search area can be determined, and the sub-region with the highest probability can be found from the determined search area. The research results of this paper provide a certain reference value for the selection of search area in the process of ship in distress search.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U676.8

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