基于随机集理论的电力系统运行风险评估

发布时间：2018-02-02 09:12

  本文关键词： 电力系统 不确定性信息 随机集 概率分布 风险评估 Dempster-Shafer证据理论　出处：《电网技术》2017年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对电力系统中故障特征和运行信息的不确定性,提出了基于随机集理论的不确定信息的表示与建模方法。该方法考虑元件故障发生的不确定性和负荷波动的随机性,将描述电网元件参数和节点负荷信息的变量转换为其随机集形式。基于随机集扩展准则,通过区间潮流计算将参数的不确定性映射到风险指标的不确定性,并利用随机集的信任测度和似真测度构造风险指标的上下累积概率分布函数。基于证据理论的随机集描述,利用Dempster-Shafer证据组合规则对所有系统状态下获得的基本概率分配(basic probability assignment,BPA)进行融合,获得系统风险水平的一致性描述。IEEE 39算例系统的计算结果证明了该方法的合理性。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the uncertainty of fault characteristics and operation information in power system. A method of representation and modeling of uncertain information based on stochastic set theory is proposed, which takes into account the uncertainty of component failure and the randomness of load fluctuation. The variables describing the network component parameters and node load information are transformed into the random set form. Based on the random set expansion criterion, the uncertainty of the parameters is mapped to the uncertainty of the risk index by interval power flow calculation. Using the trust measure and the quasi-true measure of the random set, the cumulative probability distribution function of the risk index is constructed, and the stochastic set description based on the evidence theory is presented. The basic probability assignment is allocated to all the system states by using the Dempster-Shafer evidence combination rule. The consistency description of system risk level is obtained. The calculation results of IEEE 39 example system prove the rationality of this method.
【作者单位】： 华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院;国网宁夏电力公司电力科学研究院;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0900501)~~
【分类号】：TM732
【正文快照】： 0引言电力系统的运行目的是将符合电能质量标准的电力传送给用户,并兼顾其可靠性和经济性。但是,随着电力系统互联程度的不断加深,多种内外部因素都会对电力系统的运行可靠性产生影响,导致系统故障事故频繁发生,使得系统运行风险日益严重。因此,为降低电力系统运行风险,需要研，

本文编号：1484164