A轮胎企业厂区电网改造的风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-02-17 05:01

本文关键词： 风险管理电网改造电力监控电能质量　出处：《东华大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济建设的快速发展和工厂自动化生产水平的提高,无论是车间的自动化生产过程还是厂区内的现代化智能办公,都对供配电系统的自动化程度以及电网的电能质量要求越来越高,而很多大型工厂原有的厂区配电系统显然无法达到日常生产和办公的需要。因此,为了满足生产和办公的需要,已建成的旧厂区进行电网改造则十分必要。和新建厂区不同,旧厂区的电网改造既需要保证原生产和办公的用电不受影响,又要保证带电操作及改造过程设备和人员的安全。因此,在电网改造类项目的管理中,风险管理尤其重要。本文以国内A轮胎生产企业的厂区电网改造项目为例,结合风险管理的方法和工具,提出一种适合电网改造类项目风险管理的流程和方法,为同类型项目提供参考。本文根据风险管理的过程,主要从风险识别、风险分析、风险应对及监控三个部分对该项目的风险进行管理。在风险识别阶段,首先对项目进行WBS分解,然后将分解后的活动利用头脑风暴会、德尔菲技术和访谈三种方法相结合的方式对风险进行识别,最终将项目风险进行分类并生成风险因素清单。在风险分析阶段,先通过图解技术明确每个风险因素对项目三要素(进度、成本、质量)的影响,再通过问卷调查的方式对每个风险的发生概率和对项目的影响进行打分,然后利用统计方法和工具对问卷得分进行汇总和统计,最后通过概率影响矩阵对风险因素进行排序。在风险应对及监控阶段,利用风险应对工具,对每个风险进行风险应对规划,生成风险应对清单,并且在项目实施阶段做好风险监控,保证在项目变更以及风险发生后的持续改进。本文对电网改造类项目的风险管理做了详细的分析及研究,结合风险管理的工具,提出了一个此类项目可行的风险管理过程,对同类项目的风险管理具有借鉴意义。但是,由于电网改造类项目的复杂性和多变性,项目风险必然存在不同,在实际的风险管理过程中依然会存在很多的问题,如何结合项目实际风险,运用项目风险管理工具,对电网改造类项目进行全面的风险管理,还需要将来在工作及学习中不断努力探索。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economic construction and the improvement of factory automation production level, both the workshop automation production process and the modern intelligent office in the factory area, The degree of automation of the power supply and distribution system and the power quality of the power grid are increasingly demanding. However, the original distribution system in many large factories is obviously unable to meet the needs of daily production and office work. In order to meet the needs of production and office, it is very necessary for the old factory area that has been built to carry out the power grid transformation. Unlike the new factory area, the old factory area's power grid reconstruction needs to ensure that the electricity used in the original production and office is not affected. Therefore, risk management is particularly important in the management of power grid transformation projects. This paper takes the domestic A tire production enterprises as an example. Combined with risk management methods and tools, this paper puts forward a kind of process and method suitable for power grid transformation project risk management, which provides reference for the same type of project. According to the process of risk management, this paper mainly discusses the risk identification and risk analysis. Risk response and risk monitoring manage the risk of the project. In the risk identification phase, the project is first decomposed by WBS, and then the decomposed activities are used by brainstorming. Delphi technology and interview methods combined to identify the risk, and finally classify the project risk and generate a list of risk factors. In the risk analysis stage, The influence of each risk factor on the three elements (progress, cost, quality) of the project is clarified by graphic technique, and then the probability of each risk and the impact on the project are scored by questionnaire survey. Then the questionnaire scores are summarized and counted by statistical methods and tools, and the risk factors are sorted by probability influence matrix. In the stage of risk response and monitoring, the risk coping tools are used. Plan for each risk, generate a risk response list, and monitor the risk during the implementation phase of the project. This paper makes a detailed analysis and research on the risk management of power grid transformation projects, and puts forward a feasible risk management process of this kind of projects, combining with the tools of risk management. However, because of the complexity and variability of power grid transformation project, the project risk must be different, in the actual risk management process, there will still be a lot of problems. How to combine the actual risk of the project and use the project risk management tool to carry on the comprehensive risk management to the power grid transformation project also needs to continue to explore in the future in the work and the study.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM727.3

【相似文献】