计及不确定性和全寿命周期成本的配电变压器规划方法

发布时间：2018-02-20 01:52

本文关键词： 分布式电源 Cholesky分解机会约束三点估计法全寿命周期　出处：《电力系统自动化》2017年21期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着配电网中分布式电源规模日益扩大,在电力系统规划中进一步考虑不确定性因素的影响,同时精细化规划成本具有重要的现实意义。考虑到设备投资,提出了一种计及光伏出力不确定性和全寿命周期成本的配电变压器规划方法。首先,利用Cholesky分解的方法将具有相关性各随机变量历史数据转换为相互独立的样本以消除其相关性。然后,通过基于非参数核密度估计的建模方法确定光伏及负荷的概率分布,以此为基础,以机会约束理论实现配电变压器的不确定风险定容,同时引入三点估计法计算配电网概率潮流确定其负载损耗。最后,构建出基于全寿命周期理论的不确定性配电变压器选型模型并利用粒子群优化算法进行求解。算例仿真验证了所述模型的合理性,同时结果表明,所提方法能有效弥补配电变压器定容与选型的界限,更为精细化地量度其寿命周期内的成本,提升了配电变压器规划的经济性。
[Abstract]:With the increasing scale of distributed generation in distribution network, it is very important to consider the influence of uncertainty in power system planning, and to refine the planning cost. This paper presents a distribution transformer planning method that takes into account the uncertainty of photovoltaic output and the life-cycle cost. The historical data of each random variable with correlation are transformed into independent samples by Cholesky decomposition method to eliminate the correlation. Then, the probability distribution of photovoltaic and load is determined by modeling method based on nonparametric kernel density estimation. Based on this, the uncertain risk of distribution transformer is determined by chance constraint theory, and the load loss is determined by using three-point estimation method to calculate the distribution network probabilistic power flow. The model of uncertain distribution transformer selection based on life-cycle theory is constructed and solved by particle swarm optimization algorithm. The simulation results show that the proposed model is reasonable. The proposed method can effectively compensate the limits of the fixed volume and type selection of distribution transformers, measure the cost in the life cycle of distribution transformers more meticulously, and improve the economy of distribution transformer planning.
【作者单位】：新能源微电网湖北省协同创新中心(三峡大学);天津天大求实电力新技术股份有限公司;中国大唐集团桂冠电力股份有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51607104)~~
【分类号】：TM421

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