考虑风电不确定性的概率区间潮流模型与算法

发布时间：2018-02-20 03:31

  本文关键词： 电力系统 风力发电 概率区间潮流 证据理论 基本可信度分配 区间优化法　出处：《中国电机工程学报》2017年19期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：该文基于证据理论构造了风电场的随机出力和不确定节点负荷的基本可信度分配,提出了一种电力系统概率区间潮流(probabilistic interval power flow,PIPF)模型和算法。通过构建输入不确定量的多维联合可信度分配,将概率区间潮流问题转化为若干个区间潮流问题。并采用区间优化法求解区间潮流,获得潮流状态量的区间极值,最终合成了潮流变量的似然累积概率分布和信任累积概率分布。IEEE 30、118标准系统的计算结果表明,所提的概率区间潮流把概率潮流和区间潮流统一于一个模型,获得潮流变量的似然和信任累积概率分布,可用以判断变量取值的最大和最小概率,对电力系统运行有良好的指导意义。
[Abstract]:Based on the evidence theory, this paper constructs the stochastic output force and the basic reliability distribution of the uncertain node load of the wind farm. In this paper, a probabilistic interval power flow (PIPF) model and algorithm for power system probabilistic interval power flows are proposed. The probabilistic interval power flow problem is transformed into several interval power flow problems, and interval optimization method is used to solve interval power flow, and the interval extremum of power flow state is obtained. Finally, the probabilistic cumulative probability distribution and trust cumulative probability distribution of the power flow variables are synthesized. The results of the IEEE 30,118 standard system show that the proposed probabilistic interval power flow unifies the probabilistic power flow and the interval power flow into a single model. The probability distributions of likelihood and trust accumulation of power flow variables are obtained, which can be used to judge the maximum and minimum probabilities of variables, and have a good guiding significance for the operation of power systems.
【作者单位】： 广西电力系统最优化与节能技术重点实验室(广西大学);
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973计划)(2013CB 228205) 国家自然科学基金项目(51667003)~~
【分类号】：TM614;TM744
，

本文编号：1518658