架空线路故障概率建模及可载性研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 09:35

本文关键词： 架空线路故障概率风险因素可载性应急增容工程应用　出处：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：架空输电线路是电力系统中的重要生命线工程。评估复杂运行环境下线路的故障趋势和带负荷能力的变化情况,联动分析故障概率及可载性,对于实现设备的精细化管理、支撑电网运行分析决策、提高电网安全可靠水平意义重大。为此本文开展了以下研究:首先,根据架空线路故障产生的内外部机理,提出了一种基于多时空状态分析的架空线路综合故障概率模型,介绍了建模的总体流程和模型架构方式。综合故障概率模型由一般状态模型和灾变条件模型两部分组成,根据引发停运的风险因素恶劣程度的区别,选择适配的模型差异化计算线路的故障概率。算例分析定量展现了不同应用场景下线路故障概率的计算过程及各风险因素对故障概率的影响。其次,提出了一种考虑设备可载性的架空线路动态增容方法,在应急场景下,采用通道阻塞分析选取增容线路并分析增容线路在线温、故障概率、失效贡献、个体损失等约束下的设备可载性,结合微气象信息针对不同线路差异化分析应急增容方案。算例分析直观展现了可载性约束下的线路应急增容策略的计算分析过程及设备可载性对应急增容策略的影响,以指导调度操作人员进行设备的增容、限容操作。最后,在上述研究的基础上,结合"贵阳地区电网多维度风险调度技术与应急指挥策略研究"项目,介绍了架空线路综合故障概率模型、可载性模型以及动态应急增容方法等研究成果的实际工程应用情况。对系统模块的硬件架构、数据架构、开发软件配置、软件架构逻辑及系统的实际功能效果进行了详细的阐释说明。研究成果将为实现大电网一体化智能调度提供理论指导和关键技术支撑,同时也是智能电网调度技术支持系统一个很好的补充。
[Abstract]:Overhead transmission line is an important lifeline project in power system. To evaluate the fault trend of line and the change of load capacity under complex operation environment, to analyze fault probability and loadability by linkage analysis, to realize the fine management of equipment. It is of great significance to support the power network operation analysis and decision-making and to improve the safety and reliability level of the power network. The following researches have been carried out in this paper: firstly, according to the internal and external mechanism of overhead line faults, An integrated fault probability model for overhead lines based on multi-space-time state analysis is proposed. The overall process and model architecture of the model are introduced. The integrated fault probability model consists of two parts: general state model and catastrophic condition model. Depending on the severity of the risk factors causing the outage, The fault probability of transmission line is calculated by using adaptive model. The calculation process of fault probability and the influence of various risk factors on fault probability under different application scenarios are presented quantitatively. Secondly, In this paper, a dynamic capacity increasing method for overhead lines considering equipment loadability is proposed. In the emergency scenario, the capacitive lines are selected by channel blocking analysis, and the on-line temperature, failure probability and failure contribution of capacitive lines are analyzed. Equipment loadability under individual loss and other constraints, According to the micrometeorological information, the emergency capacity increase scheme is analyzed according to the different line difference. The calculation and analysis process of the emergency capacity increase strategy under the constraint of load ability and the influence of the equipment loadability on the emergency capacity increase strategy are shown by the example analysis. Finally, on the basis of the above research, combined with the project of "Research on Multidimensional risk Dispatch Technology and Emergency Command Strategy in Guiyang Power Network", This paper introduces the practical engineering application of the integrated fault probability model, the loadability model and the dynamic emergency capacity increasing method of overhead line. The hardware structure, data structure, development software configuration of the system module are introduced. The software architecture logic and the actual function effect of the system are explained in detail. The research results will provide theoretical guidance and key technical support for the realization of integrated intelligent dispatching of large power grid. At the same time, it is also a good supplement to the smart grid dispatching technology support system.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM75

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