基于网络流转移分布因子的主动配电网运行风险评估及预警

发布时间：2018-02-28 16:28

本文关键词： 网络流转移分布因子主动配电网风险评估风险预警概率性序列多场景分析　出处：《电网技术》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：主动配电网运行风险的有效评估和及时预警是保障其安全稳定运行的重要前提。文章基于复杂网络理论首次提出了网络流转移分布因子,从网络流大小和方向2方面实现了拓扑及参数变化对网络流影响的有效线性近似。考虑拓扑时变性、参数不确定性和用户侧自发电馈电形式的多样性,通过制定归一化的风险指标和线性评估方案实现了基于当前网络状态的运行风险的及时有效评估。以概率性序列计算代替蒙特卡洛模拟,在遍历所有可能的多场景、提高分析准确性的基础上,也极大地提高了计算速率,有利于对系统当前运行状态的及时反馈。风险评估结果的序列表现形式也有利于调度进行重点线路监测和风险指标定制,为主动配电网的运行调整决策提供可靠的评估依据。最后,基于改进的IEEE 33节点系统验证了所提方法的有效性。
[Abstract]:The effective assessment and timely early warning of the operational risk of active distribution network is an important prerequisite to ensure its safe and stable operation. Based on the theory of complex network, this paper proposes the network flow transfer distribution factor for the first time. The effective linear approximation of the effect of topology and parameter change on network flow is realized from two aspects of network flow size and direction. Considering topology time-varying, parameter uncertainty and diversity of user-side self-generation feed, Through the development of normalized risk indicators and linear evaluation schemes, the real-time and effective evaluation of operational risks based on the current network state is realized. The Monte Carlo simulation is replaced by probability sequence computation, and all possible multi-scenarios are traversed. On the basis of improving the accuracy of the analysis, the calculation rate is also greatly improved, which is conducive to the timely feedback of the current operating state of the system. The sequential representation of the risk assessment results is also conducive to the monitoring of the key lines and the customization of the risk indicators for the dispatch. It provides a reliable evaluation basis for the operation adjustment decision of the active distribution network. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified based on the improved IEEE 33-bus system.
【作者单位】：上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院;
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划项目(863计划)(2014AA051901)~~
【分类号】：TM732

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