人为因素对电力系统运行可靠性影响分析

发布时间：2018-03-02 21:16

本文选题：电力系统可靠性　切入点：人为因素　出处：《浙江大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电力系统运行可靠性是电力行业和社会各界尤为关注的问题,电力系统事故一旦发生,很可能会造成电量损失、设备损坏甚至人员伤亡。随着电网规模不断扩大,区域之间的互联更加紧密,对电力系统可靠性的要求也更高。如何减少电力安全事故、提高电力系统的运行可靠性是当前电力系统研究的热点之一。诸多电力系统停电事故统计分析表明,人为因素是影响电力系统可靠性的重要方面,人员的误操作和不安全行为会导致事故的发生或扩大。目前电力系统中针对人为因素的分析尚处于起步阶段,仍需要进一步的研究。人为因素对电力系统运行可靠性影响分析主要研究人为失误发生的可能性,以及对电力系统可能造成的影响。本文首先分析了电力系统中人为失误发生机理和人员行为影响因素,进而提出了适用于不同电力操作场景下的人为可靠性分析方法；并在此基础上分析了人为因素对电力设备检修、电网应急调度等方面的影响：最后,基于人为可靠性动态分析方法IDAC(Information, Decision and Action in Crew),提出了调度员评估仿真系统模型,用于提高电力系统中人员操作的可靠性。具体研究内容包括如下：(1)分析了电力系统中人为失误发生机理,引入了电力系统人为可靠性概念。根据主要影响因素,将电力系统中任务场景分为三类：时间型、过程型和应急型,提出了适用于三种场景下的人为可靠性分析方法,并建立了考虑人为因素的设备风险模型。结合电力系统实际案例,对所提出方法和模型进行验证。(2)分析了人为因素对电力设备可靠性评估和检修决策的影响。提出了一种基于比例故障模型的设备可靠度评估方法。一方面,不对设备状态转移作任何简化,即认为设备状态转移可能发生在任何时刻,而不仅仅是状态监测点；另一方面可考虑人为因素的影响。在此基础上,完善了设备定期检修模型,考虑了由人为失误造成的不完美检修情况。(3)分析了人为失误对紧急调度操作可靠性及电网连锁故障的影响。针对调度操作过程中常见的人为失误情况,提出了考虑人为因素的紧急调度操作可靠性分析流程,分别考虑操作成功风险和操作失败风险；根据电网连锁故障发生机理,分析人为因素对电网连锁故障发展的影响,并通过IEEE RTS 79系统进行仿真验证。(4)提出了调度员评估仿真系统框架。该系统以人为可靠性动态分析方法IDAC为基础,采用认知-决策-行为模型,充分考虑了人为因素的影响。系统分为四个模块：操作员仿真模块、电力系统仿真模块、系统控制模块和系统主程序模块。系统开发完成后,可对电力系统人员的认知行为过程进行模拟仿真,以便于采取针对性的改进措施,降低人员操作失误概率,提高电力系统的可靠性。
[Abstract]:The reliability of power system operation is a special concern of the power industry and all circles of society. Once the power system accident occurs, it will probably cause power loss, equipment damage and even casualties. The interconnection between regions is closer, and the reliability of power system is higher. How to reduce power safety accidents, Improving the reliability of power system is one of the hotspots in power system research. Many statistical analysis of power system blackout shows that human factor is an important factor that affects the reliability of power system. Personnel misoperation and unsafe behavior will lead to the occurrence or expansion of accidents. At present, the analysis of human factors in power system is still in its infancy. The effect of human factors on the reliability of power system operation is analyzed, and the possibility of human error is mainly studied. Firstly, the mechanism of human error and the influencing factors of human behavior in power system are analyzed, and then the method of human reliability analysis suitable for different power operation scenarios is put forward. On this basis, the influence of human factors on power equipment maintenance and power grid emergency dispatch is analyzed. Finally, based on the dynamic analysis method of artificial reliability, IDACN Information, Decision and Action in Crews, a dispatcher evaluation simulation system model is proposed. It is used to improve the reliability of human operation in power system. The specific research contents are as follows: 1) the mechanism of human error in power system is analyzed, and the concept of artificial reliability of power system is introduced. The task scenarios in power system are divided into three types: time type, process type and emergency type. And the equipment risk model considering human factors is established, and combined with the actual case of power system, The influence of human factors on reliability evaluation and maintenance decision of power equipment is analyzed. A method of equipment reliability evaluation based on proportional fault model is proposed. Without any simplification of equipment state transition, it is considered that the equipment state transition may occur at any time, not just state monitoring points; on the other hand, the influence of human factors can be considered. On this basis, the equipment maintenance model is improved. This paper analyzes the influence of human error on the reliability of emergency dispatching operation and the cascading fault of power network, considering the imperfect overhaul situation caused by human error. In the light of the common human error situation during dispatching operation, the paper analyzes the influence of human error on the reliability of emergency dispatching operation and the cascading fault of power network. The reliability analysis flow of emergency dispatching operation considering human factors is put forward, which considers the risk of operation success and failure respectively, and analyzes the influence of human factors on the development of cascading faults according to the mechanism of cascading faults in power network. The framework of dispatcher evaluation simulation system is put forward through the simulation verification of IEEE RTS 79 system. The system is based on the dynamic analysis method of human reliability, IDAC, and adopts the cognitive-decision behavior model. The system is divided into four modules: operator simulation module, power system simulation module, system control module and system main program module. The cognitive behavior process of power system personnel can be simulated and simulated in order to take targeted improvement measures to reduce the probability of personnel operation errors and to improve the reliability of power system.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TM732

【相似文献】