区域碳流动关键部门识别及碳税对电力市场影响的研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 04:15

本文选题：投入产出　切入点：复杂网络理论　出处：《江苏大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：为了应对全球气候变化,大幅度减少化石能源消费及相应的碳排放,国际社会制定了许多能源和环境政策。然而,全球区域经济的发展存在着差异性,目前能源和环境方案的制定缺乏对全球区域经济发展差异的考虑,无法兼顾节能减排的公平与效率,因此,识别各区域碳流动的关键部门对于制定科学的能源和环境方案,对实现节能环保目标以及兼顾节能减排的公平与效率具有重要的意义。电力行业是碳排放和碳减排的重要领域之一,以中国为例,电力行业是中国碳排放的重要来源,对其征收碳税是实现节能减排目标的有效政策手段。然而对电力行业征收碳税必然会影响电力市场的稳定,因此有必要分析碳税对电力市场的影响。本文基于全球多区域投入产出表,结合复杂网络理论,构建了包含七大区域及35个产业部门的CO_2间接流动网络模型,分析了1999年、2004年和2009年六大区域的碳强度变化,发现随着时间的变化,中国的碳强度在6个区域中一直处于最高地位。其次,根据复杂网络中三个重要的指标,即度与度分布、聚类系数以及介数中心性,确定了CO_2间接流动的关键部门,讨论了可能的能源及环境政策建议。通过分析复杂网络中三个重要的指标,发现本文的三个网络在一定范围内服从幂律分布,即少部分的部门排放了大部分的CO_2,而大部分的部门排放了少部分的CO_2。其中,电力天然气及水供应业、交通运输业以及金属矿产业是各个区域中CO_2间接排放量较大的部门,应该对这些部门严格监控以减少其碳排放。为了研究碳税对电力市场的影响,本文通过建立电力生产博弈模型,分析了三寡头垄断下的电力生产模型中发电商电力产量调整速度、政府允许的最高电价以及与碳税系数这三个因素对电力市场的影响。经过研究发现,当发电商发电产量调整过快、政府允许的最高电价过高或者政府征收的碳税系数过大或过小时,都容易影响电力市场的稳定。为了避免电力市场陷入混沌状态,发电商以及政府应该根据实际情况制定合理有效的措施,将碳税控制在合适的范围。
[Abstract]:In order to cope with global climate change and greatly reduce the consumption of fossil energy and the corresponding carbon emissions, the international community has formulated many energy and environmental policies. However, there are differences in the development of global regional economy. The current development of energy and environment programmes lacks consideration of the differences in global regional economic development and does not balance equity and efficiency in energy conservation and emission reduction, and therefore the identification of key sectors of carbon flows across regions contributes to the development of scientific energy and environmental programmes, The electric power industry is one of the important fields of carbon emission and carbon emission reduction. Taking China as an example, the power industry is an important source of carbon emissions in China. The imposition of carbon tax is an effective policy means to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction. However, the imposition of carbon tax on the electricity industry will inevitably affect the stability of the electricity market. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the impact of carbon tax on the electricity market. Based on the global multi-region input-output table and the complex network theory, this paper constructs the CO_2 indirect flow network model, which includes seven regions and 35 industrial sectors. In 1999, 2004 and 2009, the changes of carbon intensity in six major regions are analyzed. It is found that the carbon intensity of China has been in the highest position among the six regions with the change of time. Secondly, according to the distribution of degree and degree, three important indexes in the complex network, the degree and degree distribution, are analyzed. The key sectors of indirect flow of CO_2 are identified, and possible energy and environmental policy recommendations are discussed. Three important indicators in complex networks are analyzed. It is found that the three networks in this paper are distributed according to the power law within a certain range, that is, a small number of departments discharge most of the COD 2, and most of the departments discharge a small part of the CO 2. Among them, the electricity, natural gas and water supply industry, Transportation and the metal mining industry are the major sectors of indirect CO_2 emissions in various regions, and these sectors should be strictly monitored to reduce their carbon emissions, in order to study the impact of the carbon tax on the electricity market. By establishing a game model of electric power production, this paper analyzes the speed of power output adjustment in the electricity production model under the monopoly of three oligarchs. The effects of three factors, the maximum electricity price allowed by the government and the carbon tax coefficient, on the electricity market. The high maximum electricity price allowed by the government or the excessive or excessive carbon tax coefficient imposed by the government can easily affect the stability of the electricity market. Electricity producers and governments should work out reasonable and effective measures to keep the carbon tax within the appropriate range.
【学位授予单位】：江苏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61;O157.5

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