福清市江阴镇中低压配电网规划设计研究

发布时间：2018-03-08 22:40

本文选题：现状分析　切入点：负荷预测　出处：《厦门理工学院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近几年福清市江阴镇经济发展迅速,中低压配电网存在局部结构薄弱、供电能力不足的问题,对全镇的经济发展造成了影响。本文以江阴镇中低压配电网“十三五”规划为研究对象,通过电网现状调查分析、电力负荷预测、配电网规划改造等设计了完整的江阴镇“十三五”中低压配电网规划方案。本文主要工作如下:(1)对江阴镇社会经济发展及电网各个环节现状进行了分析总结,研究了江阴镇中低压配电网存在的薄弱环节和问题;采用综合增长率法、产值单耗法、人均综合用电指标法对江阴镇“十三五”期间的全社会用电量及最大用电负荷进行了预测;重点采用灰色预测法对江阴镇的最大负荷进行了预测。(2)为了解决灰色预测法对原始数据进行预测时存在较大误差问题,采用了滑动平均法对原始数据进行修正,并采用一元线性回归模型对灰色预测法的残差进行修正,以此来改进灰色预测法。通过对比江阴镇过去十年最大负荷数据的预测结果,证明改进后的灰色预测法更加精确有效。采用改进的灰色预测法对江阴镇“十三五”的电力负荷进行了预测。(3)为了提升改造方案的总体经济效益,提出了一种基于变压器全寿命周期成本的配变台区改造策略,在综合考虑外部供电可靠率及变压器重过载情况后,对变压器的全寿命周期成本做出评估;提出以迫切系数作为配变台区改造次序的依据,通过实例验证证明了该方法的有效性,并将其应用到本规划中来。(4)根据配网规划和改造的基本原则,针对江阴镇中低压配电网存在的各种问题,设计了江阴镇中低压配网建设改造的具体规划方案。本规划方案实施后,江阴镇配电网的供电可靠率由99.83%可提高至99.95%,10kV及以下综合线损率由3.56%可降至3.45%,综合电压合格率由99.85%可提高至99.95%,户均配变容量从2.08kVA/户可提高到3.86kVA/户。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the economy of Jiangyin Town, Fuqing City, has developed rapidly, and there are problems of weak local structure and insufficient power supply capacity in the medium-low voltage distribution network. This paper takes Jiangyin town middle and low voltage distribution network "13th Five-Year Plan" as the research object, through the investigation and analysis of the current situation of the power network, the power load forecasting, Distribution network planning and transformation have designed a complete plan for Jiangyin Town's "13th Five-Year Plan" medium and low voltage distribution network. The main work of this paper is as follows: 1) the social and economic development of Jiangyin Town and the current situation of each link of the power network are analyzed and summarized. The weak links and problems in Jiangyin medium and low voltage distribution network are studied, and the comprehensive growth rate method and output value unit consumption method are adopted. The per capita comprehensive power consumption index method is used to forecast the whole society's electricity consumption and the maximum electric load during the 13th Five-Year Plan period of Jiangyin Town. In order to solve the problem of large error in forecasting original data by grey forecasting method, the sliding average method is used to correct the original data. In order to improve the grey forecasting method, the residual error of the grey forecasting method is modified by using the univariate linear regression model. By comparing the forecast results of the maximum load data of the past ten years in Jiangyin Town, It is proved that the improved grey forecasting method is more accurate and effective. The improved grey forecasting method is used to forecast the electric power load of Jiangyin Town in the 13th Five-Year Plan. In this paper, a transformation strategy based on the life-cycle cost of transformer is proposed. After considering the reliability of external power supply and the overloading of transformer, the life-cycle cost of transformer is evaluated. The urgent coefficient is used as the basis for the transformation order of distribution transformer station area. The effectiveness of the method is proved by an example, and applied to this program. (4) according to the basic principles of distribution network planning and transformation, In view of the various problems existing in the medium and low voltage distribution network in Jiangyin Town, the concrete planning scheme for the construction and transformation of the medium and low voltage distribution network in Jiangyin Town is designed. The reliability of power supply in Jiangyin distribution network can be increased from 99.83% to 99.9510kV and below from 3.56% to 3.45. the pass rate of comprehensive voltage can be increased from 99.85% to 99.95. the average household distribution capacity can be increased from 2.08kVA / household to 3.86kVA / household.
【学位授予单位】：厦门理工学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM715

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