电力系统操作人因可靠性研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 11:00

本文选题：电力系统可靠性　切入点：人因可靠性分析　出处：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着技术的发展及电网规模的日益扩大,电网事故后果越来越严重,所造成设备损坏、电量损失及人员伤亡的代价也越来越高。同时随着软硬件设备及通信系统可靠性的提高,操作人员的失误逐渐成为电力事故的主要原因。操作人员的不安全行为除了会导致事故的发生,事故中的误操作也会导致事故的扩大。目前电力系统操作中针对人为因素影响及人因可靠性的研究才处于起步阶段,需要进一步的深入细化研究。电力系统中操作类型及任务场景复杂,针对不同的操作类型及任务场景涉及的人为因素差异很大。本文主要分析了电力系统状态检修操作中的人为因素影响及建立了电力系统调度操作人因可靠性分析模型,最后针对电力系统操作人因基础数据缺乏的现状,提出建立了电力系统操作人因数据库系统的基本框架。具体研究内容包括如下:(1)针对电力设备检修中的人为因素考虑不足及检修效率不高的问题,提出了一种基于时间延迟理论的电力设备状态检修和计划检修混合的多级检修模型,并在设备状态检测和设备检修过程中充分考虑了人为因素的影响。最后通过优化状态检修和计划检修的检修周期使单位时间检修成本达到最小。算例分析表明,多级检修模式下选择合理的状态检修周期和计划检修周期相比于单一状态检修模式能够最小化检修成本、提高检修效率;同时研究结果也说明,在设备状态检测及检修过程中充分考虑人为因素影响对优化检修周期有很重要的作用。(2)建立了考虑人为因素的调度操作可靠性及风险评估模型,在改进CREAM方法的基础上对人员风险因子进行历史层面和实时层面的建模,该方法能够评估调度操作中的每一步人因失误率,及人因失误的风险后果。通过对RTS-79系统进行算例分析,结果表明,所建立的模型能够合理量化电力系统调度操作中的人为因素导致的操作风险,为进一步管控电力系统的人为操作风险提供基础。(3)电力系统操作人因数据的缺乏成了阻碍电力系统人因可靠性分析(HRA)领域发展的重要原因。在总结分析电力系统人因可靠性研究现状的基础上,提出了电力系统操作相关的扩展认知模型及行为影响因子(PIFs)分类体系,设计了针对电力系统领域的人因数据库系统。所设计的数据库系统除了具有人因数据采集和管理等基本功能外,还具有人因失误率(HEP)统计计算功能和数据共享机制。该数据库系统可以为验证已有人因可靠性分析方法对电力系统操作的适用性及发展新的人因可靠性分析方法提供数据支持。
[Abstract]:With the development of technology and the increasing expansion of power network scale, the consequences of power network accidents become more and more serious, and the cost of equipment damage, loss of electricity and casualties becomes higher and higher. At the same time, with the improvement of the reliability of hardware and software equipment and communication system, The fault of the operator gradually becomes the main reason of the electric power accident. The unsafe behavior of the operator can lead to the accident, The misoperation in the accident will also lead to the expansion of the accident. At present, the study of human factors and human reliability in power system operation is just in its infancy. The operation types and task scenarios in power system are complex. According to the difference of human factors in different operation types and task scenarios, this paper mainly analyzes the influence of human factors in power system condition-based maintenance operation and establishes the power system dispatching operator reliability analysis model. Finally, in view of the current situation of power system operators because of the lack of basic data, The basic framework of the power system operator database system is proposed. The specific research contents include the following: (1) considering the human factors in the maintenance of electric power equipment and the problems of low maintenance efficiency, the main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the main contents of this paper are as follows: 1. In this paper, a multilevel maintenance model based on time delay theory is proposed, which is based on the combination of condition maintenance and planned maintenance of power equipment. At last, the maintenance cost per unit time is minimized by optimizing the maintenance cycle of condition maintenance and scheduled maintenance. Selecting reasonable condition maintenance cycle and planned maintenance period under multilevel maintenance mode can minimize the maintenance cost and improve the maintenance efficiency compared with the single condition maintenance mode. In the process of equipment condition detection and maintenance, it is very important to consider the influence of human factors to optimize the maintenance cycle. (2) the reliability and risk assessment model of dispatching operation considering human factors is established. Based on the improved CREAM method, the human risk factors are modeled at the historical and real-time levels. The method can evaluate the human error rate in every step of the scheduling operation. Through the analysis of RTS-79 system, the result shows that the model can reasonably quantify the operation risk caused by human factors in power system dispatching operation. The lack of operator data in power system is an important reason that hinders the development of human factor reliability analysis (HRAs) in power system. Based on the present situation of human reliability research, The extended cognitive model and PIFs classification system related to power system operation are proposed. The human-induced database system in the field of power system is designed. The database system has the basic functions of human data acquisition and management. The database system can provide data support for verifying the applicability of reliability analysis method to power system operation and developing new human factor reliability analysis method.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM732

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