考虑风电出力及负荷预测误差的安全经济运行模型

发布时间：2018-03-24 09:13

本文选题：风电出力预测　切入点：负荷预测　出处：《运筹与管理》2017年05期

【摘要】：充分考虑了风电并网和负荷预测不确定性,引入净负荷的概念,实现对风电和负荷预测误差发生概率的综合考虑。通过场景概率的研究,以包括确定性成本和随机性成本在内的综合调度成本最小化为目标函数,构建安全经济运行模型。算例分析表明,本文构建的随机安全运行计划模型相比于传统的确定性模型能够更有效地降低系统运行成本,结果同时显示,根据系统容量和负荷需求合理配置风电装机容量,是减少弃风量、提高供电可靠性的重要手段。
[Abstract]:Considering the uncertainty of wind power grid connection and load forecasting, the concept of net load is introduced to realize the comprehensive consideration of the probability of wind power and load forecasting error. Taking the minimization of comprehensive scheduling cost, including deterministic cost and stochastic cost, as the objective function, a safe economic operation model is constructed. Compared with the traditional deterministic model, the stochastic safe operation planning model constructed in this paper can reduce the running cost of the system more effectively. The results also show that according to the system capacity and load requirements, the reasonable configuration of wind power installed capacity is to reduce the air volume. An important means to improve the reliability of power supply.
【作者单位】：国网能源研究院;华北电力大学新能源电力系统国家重点实验室;国网北京经济技术研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71271082) 国家电网公司科技项目(SGERI06KJ[2015]63)
【分类号】：TM614

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