“十三五”中国电力需求水平预测

发布时间：2018-04-04 22:41

本文选题：新常态　切入点：电力需求预测　出处：《中国电力》2017年09期

【摘要】：电力需求预测水平是"十三五"电力发展规划的重要基础。经济新常态下,以高端制造业为代表的第二产业、以现代服务业为代表的第三产业以及新型城镇化驱动下的居民生活用电将成为拉动中国用电需求增长的新动能。中国正处于向工业化后期过渡的关键阶段,未来将大力推进经济结构调整和转型升级,拉动经济增长的传统动力正在消退,用电需求难以出现以往的两位数高速增长。但是,与发达国家相比,中国人均用电水平仍然偏低,未来用电需求仍有较大发展潜力,过低的用电增速判断不符合相关国家及地区的历史用电发展经验。应用多种方法对中国未来电力需求水平进行了预测,预计"十三五"期间中国用电需求将维持中速刚性增长。
[Abstract]:The power demand forecast level is the important foundation of the power development plan of the 13th five-year plan.In the new normal economy, the secondary industry, represented by the high-end manufacturing industry, the tertiary industry represented by the modern service industry and the household electricity consumption driven by the new urbanization, will become the new kinetic energy to stimulate the growth of China's electricity demand.China is in the key stage of the transition to late industrialization. In the future, it will vigorously promote economic restructuring and transformation and upgrading. The traditional driving force for economic growth is fading, and the demand for electricity is difficult to achieve the double-digit rapid growth in the past.However, compared with the developed countries, the per capita level of electricity consumption in China is still on the low side, and the demand for electricity in the future still has a great potential for development. The judgment of too low power consumption growth rate does not accord with the historical development experience of relevant countries and regions.The future power demand level of China is forecasted by various methods. It is expected that the demand will maintain a moderate rigid growth rate during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
【作者单位】：电力规划设计总院;
【分类号】：F426.61

【相似文献】