考虑实时和潜在因素的城市配电网风险评估模型和方法

发布时间：2018-04-14 05:03

本文选题：配电网 + 风险评估　；参考：《电力系统自动化》2017年04期

【摘要】：为了对城市配电网的风险水平进行准确评估,建立了配电网风险评估模型,并提出一种风险评估方法。从运行风险和网架风险两个方面建立配电网的风险评估模型,运行风险反映了配电网当前运行状态下的风险,网架风险反映了网架结构方面存在的潜在风险。通过建立相应的配电网风险指标体系,并结合风险量化值的计算及风险等级的划分确定配电网综合风险水平,在计算风险量化值的过程中采用变权重和对数合成相结合的方式。算例表明所提出的城市配电网风险评估模型和评估方法能够有效地评估配电网的风险。目前,该风险评估模型及方法已在某供电局得到了初步应用。
[Abstract]:In order to accurately evaluate the risk level of urban distribution network, a distribution network risk assessment model is established and a risk assessment method is proposed.The risk assessment model of distribution network is established from the aspects of operation risk and grid structure risk. The operational risk reflects the risk under the current operation state of the distribution network, and the risk of the grid structure reflects the potential risk in the grid structure.By establishing the corresponding risk index system of distribution network and combining the calculation of risk quantification value and the division of risk grade, the comprehensive risk level of distribution network is determined. In the process of calculating risk quantification value, the combination of variable weight and logarithmic combination is adopted.An example shows that the proposed risk assessment model and method can effectively evaluate the risk of distribution network.At present, the risk assessment model and method have been applied in a power supply bureau.
【作者单位】：深圳供电局有限公司;东方电子股份有限公司;上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院;
【分类号】：TM732

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