中国电力行业减排政策——基于电力需求函数的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-19 10:56

  本文选题：电力行业 + 减排政策　； 参考：《技术经济》2017年05期

【摘要】：利用2003—2015年中国的省际面板数据,通过估计电力需求函数模拟碳税的政策效果,为电力行业减排政策的制定提供了参考。结果表明:随着中国经济进入新常态,电价对电力需求的影响减弱,产业结构特别是工业内部结构的调整对电力需求和电力消费结构产生一定影响;由于电力需求对电价变动不敏感,因此碳税的减排效果有限;为实现减排目标,政府需要征收高额碳税,但这在现有的电价水平下较难实施;从减排效果和实施难度两个方面来看,当前暂不开征碳税的减排政策具有一定合理性;与碳税相比,加快供给侧结构性改革、降低火力发电比重,能够更有效地实现减排目标;现阶段政府应将调整电源结构作为节能减排工作的重点。
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2003 to 2015, the paper simulates the effect of carbon tax policy by estimating the power demand function, which provides a reference for the power industry to make the emission reduction policy.The results show that as China's economy enters the new normal, the influence of electricity price on power demand weakens, and the adjustment of industrial structure, especially the internal structure of industry, has a certain impact on power demand and power consumption structure.Because the electricity demand is insensitive to the change of electricity price, the carbon tax has limited effect on emission reduction; in order to achieve the emission reduction target, the government needs to levy a high carbon tax, but this is difficult to implement under the existing electricity price level.From the two aspects of emission reduction effect and implementation difficulty, the current emission reduction policy of not levying carbon tax is reasonable, compared with carbon tax, accelerating supply-side structural reform and reducing the proportion of thermal power generation can achieve emission reduction targets more effectively.At present, the government should adjust the power supply structure as the focus of energy saving and emission reduction.
【作者单位】： 复旦大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“多目标中国电力价格综合规制方案研究——基于价格形成机制与产业链绩效的视角”(71273061)
【分类号】：F206;F426.61
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本文编号：1772803