光伏发电系统拟合出力预测与最大接入容量

发布时间：2018-04-20 07:00

本文选题：光伏发电系统 + 拟合出力预测　；参考：《西安理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：光伏发电作为新能源发电的代表近些年来高速发展,光伏发电存在着随机性、间歇性、波动性这三类独有的特性,导致了光伏出力不能准确被准确获悉,导致了光伏接入会给传统电网造成影响。本文针对光伏发电系统的出力预测和最大接入这两个研究热点分别研究。本文研究了某光伏发电系统在典型日类型下的出力曲线并分析其出力特性,将光伏发电系统所处环境的天气类型分为五种日类型,提出了应用最小二乘曲线拟合分日类型来预测光伏发电系统出力的方法。随后本文预测了光伏电站出力曲线满足的多项式函数关系,将出力曲线作为神经网络隐含层的激发函数,预测了光伏电站出力,验证了使用最小二乘拟合与神经网络组合预测方法的误差低于使用神经网络预测方法的误差。本文基于PSASP中的UD建模环境搭建了光伏发电系统中光伏电池、逆变器、最大功率跟踪等环节模型,根据实际光伏发电系统连接关系整合形成光伏发电系统模型。本文研究了求取各类电源最大接入容量的方法,比较了各方法的特点,提出了应用数字仿真求取光伏发电系统最大接入容量的方法。随后本文结合某光伏发达地区网架结构,研究了小容量光伏发电系统接入对电网有功频率、无功相角、惯量稳定性的影响,利用基于静态、动态稳定来求取某地区电网光伏发电最大接入容量,验证了外部故障导致的电压动态失稳是限制光伏发电最大接入容量的主要因素。
[Abstract]:Photovoltaic power generation, as a representative of new energy generation, has developed rapidly in recent years. Photovoltaic power generation has three unique characteristics: randomness, intermittence and volatility. As a result, photovoltaic access will have an impact on the traditional grid. In this paper, the output prediction and maximum access of photovoltaic power generation system are studied separately. In this paper, the output curve of a photovoltaic power generation system under a typical day type is studied and its output characteristics are analyzed. The weather types of the environment in which the photovoltaic power generation system is located are divided into five types. This paper presents a method for predicting the output of photovoltaic power generation system by using the least square curve fitting daily type. Then the polynomial function relation of the output curve of photovoltaic power station is predicted. The output curve is regarded as the excitation function of the hidden layer of the neural network, and the output force of the photovoltaic power station is predicted. It is verified that the error of combining least square fitting and neural network prediction method is lower than that of neural network prediction method. Based on the UD modeling environment in PSASP, the photovoltaic system models such as photovoltaic cell, inverter and maximum power tracking are built, and the photovoltaic system model is integrated according to the connection relation of the actual photovoltaic power generation system. In this paper, the method of calculating the maximum access capacity of various kinds of power supply is studied, the characteristics of each method are compared, and the method of applying digital simulation to calculate the maximum access capacity of photovoltaic power generation system is put forward. Then, combining with the grid structure in a developed photovoltaic area, this paper studies the influence of small capacity photovoltaic power system access on the active power frequency, reactive phase angle, inertia stability of the grid. Dynamic stability is used to obtain the maximum access capacity of photovoltaic power generation in a certain area. It is verified that the voltage dynamic instability caused by external faults is the main factor limiting the maximum access capacity of photovoltaic power generation.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM615

【参考文献】