基于风电接纳空间电量回归模型的弃风率快速计算方法

发布时间：2018-04-26 20:47

本文选题：接纳空间电量 + 弃风率　；参考：《电网技术》2017年01期

【摘要】：近年来,风电发展迅速,弃风也日益增多,对电网弃风率做出快速准确评估对指导新能源开发规划、制订常规电源年/月发电计划具有重要意义。提出了一种评估未来电网风电接纳能力和弃风情况的新方法。文中以一段时间的接纳空间电量来衡量此时间段的电网接纳风电能力,经理论分析、回归修正,得到接纳空间电量与备用率、负荷率、负荷电量、常规机组最小出力系数的计算模型。然后,分析弃风率与风电理论电量占接纳空间电量比例的关系,经曲线拟合得到弃风率与该比例的分段线性函数。最后,以接纳空间电量为桥梁,得到弃风率与备用率、负荷率、负荷电量、常规机组最小技术出力系数、风电理论电量的计算模型。利用该方法,算例中评估了我国北部某3个省份2015年的弃风率,与时序生产模拟的对比验证了所提方法的有效性。并定义弃风压力指数作为风电优先调度难度的评估指标。
[Abstract]:In recent years, wind power has developed rapidly and abandoned wind has been increasing day by day. It is of great significance to make a rapid and accurate evaluation of grid wind abandonment rate to guide the new energy development planning and to formulate the annual / monthly generation plan of conventional power supply. In this paper, a new method for evaluating the wind power acceptance and wind rejection in the future power grid is presented. In this paper, the capacity of accepting wind power in this period of time is measured by a period of time. Through theoretical analysis and regression correction, the capacity of receiving space electricity and reserve rate, load rate and load capacity are obtained. The calculation model of minimum output coefficient of conventional units. Then, the relationship between the wind abandonment rate and the proportion of the theoretical electricity quantity to the accepted space is analyzed, and the piecewise linear function between the abandoned wind rate and the proportion is obtained by curve fitting. Finally, taking the space electric quantity as the bridge, the calculation model of abandoned wind rate and reserve rate, load rate, load electricity quantity, minimum technical output coefficient of conventional unit and theoretical power quantity of wind power are obtained. By using this method, the wind abandonment rate of three provinces in the north of China in 2015 is evaluated, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by comparison with the time series production simulation. The abandoned wind pressure index is defined as the evaluation index of wind power priority dispatching difficulty.
【作者单位】：新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室(中国电力科学研究院);
【分类号】：TM72

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