基于模糊理论的风电项目前期风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 00:28

本文选题：风电 + 风险管理　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：风电是风能利用的主要形式之一,全球风能储量约为2.74×1012千瓦的风力发电和太阳能,生物质等可再生能源发电运行,技术更成熟,成本更低,建设成本更低,环境影响小,而且在为全球碳排放提供能源作出积极贡献,中国的风能资源非常丰富,国内陆地上的风电储量约为2.53亿千瓦,具有巨大的发展潜力和价值。但由于目前风电项目的开发建设存在很多问题,其中有些严重制约了我国风电产业的可持续发展。与风电产业的视角对风险项目的风险进行分析与评价。风能是一种典型的清洁能源,在二十一世纪日益紧张的能源供应中,世界越来越关注。与传统的化石能源相比,风能由于其可再生和无污染的优势,具有巨大的发展潜力。风力发电不仅可以节省煤炭、石油、天然气等化石能源,提高结构能源也起着重要作用。目前,风电产业发展迅速,技术上已经没有非常大的限制。风电场项目的商业运行越来越成熟。目前,在全球范围内,风电产业保持了较高的增长速度。从风电装机容量来看,美国、欧洲发展的风电产业。近年来,我国风电产业的快速发展,风电装机容量已成为世界前列。接下来,风能在能源中所占的比例将逐渐提高,成为人类重要的能源来源。本文主要以东北某风电项目和西北某风电项目作为案例进行实证分析,两个地区的风资源丰富,在项目可行性研究,单位选择、施工过程有其特殊性,根据两种形式的项目和选定开发区网络连接情况,其次,风资源评估工作,基于风能数据测量,根据风能资源评估情况,确定模型结合旁观者初步确定的单位安排测量功率,最终结合项目投资,综合工程地质、利用基于模糊理论和专家意见的风险评估方法和基于动态盈亏平衡线的风险评估方法对两个风电项目的前期风险进行了评价。风电项目前期工作程序十分繁杂,面临的风险多样。本文将对风电项目前期的建设流程及其各个阶段进行里程碑划分,根据各个阶段工作任务和内容,对风电项目风险进行识别,定量确定其风险水平,并构建风电项目风险评估指标和评价模型。根据项目的风险容忍度(目标是以最低投入获得最佳经济效益)建立决策模型。在风险策略制定方面,将综合考虑国家有关政策法规、宏观经济形势、企业项目所在区域宏观经济和市场形势、统筹科学合理制定风电项目开发工作任务和实施方案,优化风电投资时序、布局决策管理机制,最终对风电前期的工作风险进行分散与规避。
[Abstract]:Wind power is one of the main forms of wind energy utilization. The global wind energy reserves of about 2.74 脳 1012 kilowatts of wind power and solar energy, biomass and other renewable energy power generation, technology is more mature, lower cost, lower construction costs, and less environmental impact. In addition, China is rich in wind energy resources and has a huge potential and value of land wind power reserves of about 253 million kilowatts. However, there are many problems in the development and construction of wind power projects, some of which seriously restrict the sustainable development of wind power industry in China. From the angle of view of wind power industry, the risk of risk projects is analyzed and evaluated. Wind energy is a typical clean energy, and the world is paying more and more attention to it in the increasingly tight energy supply in the 21 ~ (th) century. Compared with traditional fossil energy, wind energy has great development potential because of its renewable and pollution-free advantages. Wind power not only can save fossil energy, such as coal, oil and natural gas, but also plays an important role in improving structural energy. At present, wind power industry is developing rapidly, and there is no great limitation on technology. The commercial operation of wind farm projects is becoming more and more mature. At present, in the global scope, the wind power industry has maintained a higher growth rate. From the wind power installed capacity, the United States, Europe's development of wind power industry. In recent years, with the rapid development of wind power industry in China, wind power installed capacity has become the forefront of the world. Wind energy will gradually become an important source of energy for mankind. This paper mainly takes a wind power project in Northeast China and a wind power project in Northwest China as a case study. The wind resources in the two regions are abundant, and the project feasibility study, unit selection and construction process have their particularities. According to the two forms of projects and the network connection of the selected development zones, secondly, the wind resource evaluation work, based on wind energy data measurement, according to the wind energy resources evaluation, determine the model combined with bystander preliminary determined unit arrangement measurement power, Finally, combined with project investment and engineering geology, the risk assessment method based on fuzzy theory and expert opinion and the risk assessment method based on dynamic break-even line are used to evaluate the pre-stage risk of the two wind power projects. The work procedure of wind power project is very complicated, and the risk is diverse. This paper will carry on the milestone division to the wind power project early stage construction flow and each stage, according to each stage work task and the content, carries on the identification to the wind power project risk, quantificationally determines its risk level, And build wind power project risk assessment index and evaluation model. A decision model is established according to the risk tolerance of the project (the goal is to obtain the best economic benefit with the lowest input). In the aspect of risk strategy formulation, comprehensive consideration will be given to the relevant national policies and regulations, the macroeconomic situation, the macroeconomic and market situation of the region where the enterprise project is located, and the overall and rational formulation of the task and implementation plan of wind power project development, Optimization of the timing of wind power investment, layout of decision-making management mechanism, wind power in the final work risk dispersion and avoidance.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61;TU71

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