分布式光伏并网发电项目风险分析及评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 19:38

本文选题：分布式光伏并网发电 + 风险评价　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：能源,作为国民经济发展的助推剂,无论是在政治、经济还是社会等方面,都是人们关注的热点。我国每年对于能源的需求,尤其是化石燃料的需求不断增加,直接导致了能源的短缺和环境污染等问题,进而抑制了社会经济的健康发展。由于分布式光伏发电项目运行对环境的损害几乎为零,且其相比于大型的地面集中式光伏电站,建设的成本相对较低,与此同时又受到国家、地区的多重优惠政策,因此其发展十分的有利。分布式光伏发电能够改变地区原有的能源结构,促进资源的优化配置,还能够保护生态环境,因此对于社会、生态都起到了优化的作用。本文的研究对象为分布式光伏发电项目的风险,并且该风险评价研究是站在投资商的角度进行研究分析的,通过对分布式光伏发电项目的梳理和分析,寻找到对于投资商来说,在进行项目投资时,所要面临的项目的风险,以及风险的大小,并知晓该项目是否适合投资。因此就需要结合项目本身的特点找出该项目的风险因素的种类,本文根据风险评价指标体系构建原则,构建了分布式光伏并网发电项目风险评价的指标体系;充分考虑决策者结合整个项目实际情况的经验判断,避免盲目的追求数据信息,又能够更合理的给出各指标的权数,采用AHP以确定各指标的权重;运用物元可拓理论确定了待评物元、经典域、节域,继而得到了项目关于各评价等级的关联度,得到最终的基于AHP的物元可拓评价模型。最后,将该评价模型运用到JX县3MW屋顶光伏发电项目风险评价上,对该项目风险程度进行评价。对于该分布式光伏并网发电项目风险建立的评价指标体系包括外部政策导向风险、环境风险、技术风险以及经济风险四个风险评价指标,通过采用本文所提出的评价模型,确定了待评价项目的评价等级为“极低风险”,并采用了期望损失值法计算了每个风险指标对利润的期望损失值,进而得出评价结论和项目中的主要问题,并结合这些问题提出了相关建议,以便将本文的研究成果落地实施。本文结合实际的分布式光伏发电项目,研究在该项目建设运行过程中,国家、地区关于分布式光伏补贴政策是否能够及时的落实到项目中,补贴发放是否能够落实到位,以及所建项目的周边环境是否符合建设项目的条件,而当项目建设过程中又是否正回馈于周边的环境,当然技术方面的风险以及该项目的运行能够给投资商带来可观的利益等一些可见的风险进行了全面的分析,并基于这些目风险评价要素分析,构建了风险评价指标体系及物元可拓评价模型,对案例中的项目进行了风险的评价和相关风险控制和预防的建议,不仅为本项目提供保障,也为以后相似的项目提供重要的参考。
[Abstract]:Energy, as a booster of national economic development, is a hot topic in politics, economy and society. The increasing demand for energy resources, especially fossil fuels, directly leads to the shortage of energy and environmental pollution in China, and thus inhibits the healthy development of social economy. Because the environmental damage of the distributed photovoltaic power generation project is almost zero, and compared with the large-scale centralized photovoltaic power station, the construction cost is relatively low, and at the same time, it is also subject to the national and regional multiple preferential policies. Therefore, its development is very advantageous. Distributed photovoltaic power generation can change the original energy structure of the region, promote the optimal allocation of resources, and also protect the ecological environment, so it plays an important role in the optimization of society and ecology. The research object of this paper is the risk of distributed photovoltaic power generation project, and the risk evaluation research is carried out from the perspective of the investor. Through combing and analyzing the distributed photovoltaic power generation project, we find out that the risk evaluation research is for the investor. The risk and size of the project to be faced when investing in the project, and to know whether the project is suitable for investment. Therefore, it is necessary to find out the types of risk factors according to the characteristics of the project itself. According to the construction principle of risk evaluation index system, this paper constructs the risk evaluation index system of distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power generation project. Fully consider the decision makers combined with the actual situation of the project experience judgment, avoid blind pursuit of data information, but also more reasonable to give the weight of each index, using AHP to determine the weight of each index; The matter-element extension theory is used to determine the matter-element, the classical domain, the nodal domain, and then the correlation degree of each evaluation level of the project is obtained, and the final matter-element extension evaluation model based on AHP is obtained. Finally, the evaluation model is applied to the risk evaluation of 3MW roof photovoltaic power generation project in JX county, and the risk degree of the project is evaluated. For the risk evaluation index system of the distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power generation project, it includes four risk evaluation indexes: external policy-oriented risk, environmental risk, technical risk and economic risk, by adopting the evaluation model proposed in this paper. The evaluation grade of the project to be evaluated is determined as "very low risk", and the expected loss value of profit for each risk index is calculated by using the expected loss value method, and then the evaluation conclusions and the main problems in the project are obtained. Combined with these problems, some suggestions are put forward in order to carry out the research results of this paper. Combined with the actual distributed photovoltaic power generation project, this paper studies whether the distributed photovoltaic subsidy policy can be implemented to the project in time, whether the subsidy can be implemented in place during the construction and operation of the project. And whether the surrounding environment of the project conforms to the conditions of the construction project, and whether the surrounding environment is being returned to the surrounding environment during the construction of the project, Of course, some visible risks, such as the technical risks and the operation of the project, which can bring considerable benefits to the investors, are comprehensively analyzed, and based on the analysis of the elements of risk assessment for these purposes, The risk evaluation index system and matter-element extension evaluation model are constructed, and the risk evaluation and risk control and prevention suggestions are carried out for the project in the case, which not only provides the guarantee for the project, but also provides a guarantee for the project. It also provides important reference for similar projects in the future.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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