中国电力周期与经济周期的协同性——基于Markov区制转移模型

发布时间：2018-05-01 01:11

本文选题：电力周期 + 经济周期　；参考：《技术经济》2017年07期

【摘要】：采用1978—2015年中国电力消费和国内生产总值的年度数据,基于"三区制"马尔科夫区制转移模型,研究了电力消费和经济增长的动态转变过程,识别和划分了改革开放后中国电力周期和经济周期的阶段,并分析了两者在不同阶段的协同性。结果表明:电力周期和经济周期均具有低速增长期、稳定增长期和高速增长期三个区制转移特征;电力消费在低速增长期和高速增长期的波动性明显高于GDP,而在稳定增长期的波动性则显著小于GDP;20世纪80年代中期以前,是电力周期和经济周期的静态协同期;20世纪80年代中后期,两者处于非协同期;之后,两者处于显著的跨区制动态协同期,且处于协同期的电力周期与经济周期在时间上表现出较高的一致性。
[Abstract]:Based on the annual data of China's electricity consumption and GDP from 1978 to 2015, the dynamic transformation process of electricity consumption and economic growth is studied based on the "three-region" Markov system transfer model. The phases of electric power cycle and economic cycle in China after the reform and opening up are identified and divided, and the synergy between the two is analyzed in different stages. The results show that the power cycle and economic cycle have three regional system transfer characteristics: low growth period, stable growth period and high speed growth period. The fluctuation of electricity consumption in the period of low speed growth and high speed growth is obviously higher than that of GDP, while the volatility in stable growth period is significantly lower than that in GDP before the mid-1980s. It is the static collaborative period of electric power cycle and economic cycle. In the middle and late 1980s, both of them are in the non-synergetic period, and after that, they are in the significant cross-region dynamic collaborative period. And the electric power cycle and the economic cycle in the coordination period show a high consistency in time.
【作者单位】：上海电力学院经济与管理学院;国网冀北电力有限公司经济技术研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“外商直接投资对我国二氧化碳排放绩效的影响效应研究及政策选择”(71103120);国家自然科学基金青年项目“家庭智能用电任务调度优化及其对电网负荷影响分析模型”(51507099)
【分类号】：F124;F224;F426.61

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