计及参数模糊性的含风电场电力系统概率潮流计算

发布时间：2018-05-04 07:18

本文选题：参数模糊性 + 随机模糊变量　；参考：《电网技术》2017年07期

【摘要】：风电场并网后将对电力系统运行产生一系列影响。传统半不变量法计算概率潮流(probabilistic power flow,PPF)通常仅考虑风速随机性,可能导致分析结果偏离客观实际。提出一种计及参数模糊性的半不变量法PPF计算方法。针对风速和负荷的随机性及模糊性,建立随机模糊不确定性模型,采用基于增量法的模糊潮流求得状态变量数字特征的可能性分布。同时,计及风速模糊相关性,通过模糊化半不变量法的解析法拟合得到状态变量各阶半不变量三角模糊置信区间。最后,运用Gram-Charlier级数拟合状态量的模糊概率分布。对改进IEEE 14节点系统以及江苏南京78节点等值系统的实际数据进行测试,验证了算法的有效性、准确性及实用性,并具体分析了风速模糊相关性对系统运行特性的影响。
[Abstract]:The wind farm will have a series of effects on the operation of the power system after it is connected to the grid. The traditional semi-invariant method for probabilistic power flow-PPFs only considers the randomness of wind speed, which may cause the analysis results to deviate from the objective reality. This paper presents a semi-invariant PPF calculation method which takes into account the fuzziness of parameters. Aiming at the randomness and fuzziness of wind speed and load, a stochastic fuzzy uncertainty model is established, and the probability distribution of the digital characteristics of state variables is obtained by fuzzy power flow based on incremental method. At the same time, taking into account the fuzzy correlation of wind speed, the triangular fuzzy confidence interval of semi-invariants of state variables is obtained by fitting the analytic method of fuzzy semi-invariant method. Finally, the fuzzy probability distribution of state variables is fitted by Gram-Charlier series. The actual data of the improved IEEE 14-bus system and the 78 bus equivalent system in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province are tested, and the validity, accuracy and practicability of the algorithm are verified. The influence of fuzzy correlation of wind speed on the operation characteristics of the system is analyzed in detail.
【作者单位】：河海大学能源与电气学院;苏州供电公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51277052)~~
【分类号】：TM744

【相似文献】