发电侧与用电侧参与电能替代的效益分析与优化研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 06:48

本文选题：发电侧 + 用电侧　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：近年来,中国经济保持中高速增长,以化石能源为主的能源消耗也随之快速增加,但由于能源结构单一导致经济增长面临着日益严峻的资源约束和环境问题,尤其是环境问题已成为限制经济发展的重要因素。虽然中国政府相继推出了含有政府补贴的固定上网电价制度和税收优惠制度等,以促进清洁能源消纳利用,缓解能源消费结构单一的问题,但能源储备与需求的逆向分布抑制了中国清洁能源的规模化消纳。因此,为了激励可再生能源发电上网,增加清洁能源的利用程度,需要通过发电侧电能替代、用户侧电能替代和两侧联动电能替代等措施深入开展电能替代工作。本文以中国电能替代政策为研究对象,围绕电能替代途径优化和综合效益评价展开了相关的研究,主要研究内容如下:(1)梳理电能替代已有的研究成果,介绍电能替代的基本含义、演变过程和相关政策,总结典型发达国家电能替代的实施经验启示,明确电能替代的综合作用途径,能够为中国电能替代政策的深入具体化实施提供重要的参考依据,对于发电侧、用户侧和两侧联动的电动替代优化机制的建立有着重要的决策价值,为论文开展电能替代途径优化及综合效益评估提供了全面的理论依据。(2)建立了发电侧参与电能替代潜力动态预测及优化模型。从空间、潜力和途径三个方面分析了发电侧电能替代的潜力及空间,针对区域内发电侧电能替代,引入鲁棒随机优化理论,并针对电源的不确定性建立了鲁棒随机约束条件及随机调度优化模型。最后,基于可信性理论分别建立了电能替代常规数学模型和随机调度优化模型,并对所提模型进行了实例分析。(3)设计了用户侧参与电能替代经济效益分析及优化模型。讨论了用户侧以电代煤、以电代油和以电代气等电能替代途径,建立用户侧不同电能替代途径的综合效益分析模型。以用户侧电能替代组合投资效益最大为优化目标,综合考虑电能替代实施过程中的约束条件,建立了基于经典投资组合模型的用户侧参与电能替代组合优化模型。基于用户侧电能替代经济效益分析结果,围绕电能采暖、烤烟电价和电动汽车三种电能替代政策,设计了用户侧电能替代的补贴政策。(4)构建了发电侧与用电侧联动电能替代优化模型。首先,设计了低谷风电参与电采暖的技术途径,建立了电采暖的经济分析模型。然后,介绍了虚拟电厂的基本结果,建立了基于鲁棒随机优化理论的虚拟电厂随机调度优化模型。最后,提出了清洁能源驱动的多能互补系统,以系统运营收益最大化作为优化目标,建立了多能互补系统运行优化模型。(5)提出了电能替代综合效益多目标优化评价模型。设计了电能替代标准体系,从发电侧和用户侧两个维度构建包括经济效益和环境效益的综合评价指标体系,提出了集成主观可赋权原理的指标权重计算模型,建立了电能替代综合效益多目标优化评估机制,从整体和局部掌握中国电能替代政策实施的主要效果,并纵向和横向对比了电能替代的综合效益。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economic growth has increased rapidly, and the energy consumption based on fossil energy has also increased rapidly. However, because of the single energy structure, economic growth is facing increasingly severe resource constraints and environmental problems. Especially, environmental problems have become an important factor restricting the development of the economy. There is a government subsidized fixed net electricity price system and tax preference system to promote clean energy consumption and ease the single energy consumption structure, but the reverse distribution of energy reserves and demand inhibits the scale and elimination of clean energy in China. Therefore, to encourage renewable energy generation to generate electricity, increase the benefits of clean energy. In order to use the substitution of power generation side power, the substitution of the user side power and the replacement of the two side linkage power, this paper takes the alternative policy of China electric energy as the research object, and studies the related research on the optimization of electric energy substitution and the comprehensive benefit evaluation. The main contents are as follows: (1) combing the electric energy Instead of the existing research results, the basic meaning, the evolution process and the related policies of the electric energy substitution are introduced, and the experience enlightenment of the electric energy substitution in the typical developed countries is summarized, and the comprehensive way of the electric energy substitution can be clearly defined, which can provide important reference for the in-depth and concrete implementation of the power substitution policy in China, and the side of the power generation and the user side. The establishment of an electric alternative optimization mechanism linked to both sides has an important decision value. It provides a comprehensive theoretical basis for the optimization of electricity alternative approaches and the comprehensive benefit evaluation in this paper. (2) a dynamic prediction and optimization model of power generation side participation in power substitution potential is established. The power generation side is analyzed from three aspects of space, potential and approach. The potential and space of electric energy substitution, the robust stochastic optimization theory is introduced to replace the power generation side in the region, and the robust stochastic constraint conditions and stochastic scheduling optimization model are established for the uncertainty of power supply. Finally, based on the credibility theory, the conventional mathematical model and stochastic scheduling optimization model are established. The model is analyzed. (3) the economic benefit analysis and optimization model of the user side participating in the electricity energy substitution are designed. The comprehensive benefit analysis model of the user side with electric generation of coal, electricity generation and electricity generation is established to establish the comprehensive benefit analysis model of different power alternative ways on the user side. The user side power can replace the combined investment benefit most. In order to optimize the target and consider the constraints in the process of electric energy substitution, a combination optimization model of electricity energy substitution based on the classic portfolio model is established. Based on the analysis result of the user side electric energy instead of the economic benefit, three kinds of electric energy substitution policies are designed for the electric energy heating, the flue-cured tobacco electricity price and the electric vehicle. The subsidy policy is replaced by the household side electric energy. (4) the optimization model of the power generation side and the electric energy substitution is constructed. Firstly, the technical approach of the low valley wind power to participate in the electric heating is designed, and the economic analysis model of the electric heating is established. Then, the basic results of the virtual power plant are introduced, and the virtual power plant based on the robust stochastic optimization theory is established. In the end, the multi energy complementary system driven by clean energy is proposed. The optimization model of multi energy complementary system operation is set up with the maximization of the operating revenue of the system as the optimization goal. (5) a multi-objective optimization evaluation model of electric energy replacement comprehensive benefit is proposed. The electric energy substitution standard system is designed, from the generation side and the user side two. In order to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system including economic and environmental benefits, an index weight calculation model with integrated subjective empowerment principle is put forward, and a multi-objective optimization evaluation mechanism is established to replace the comprehensive benefit of electric energy. The main effect of the implementation of China's power substitution policy is mastered from the whole and the part, and the vertical and horizontal comparison is also made. The comprehensive benefits of electric energy replacement.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

【参考文献】