碳排放约束对我国电力需求的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 05:05

本文选题：一步系统广义矩估计 + 电力需求　；参考：《生态经济》2017年12期

【摘要】：电力生产消费是二氧化碳的重要来源,但迄今大部分研究都忽略了碳排放约束对电力需求的影响。论文基于我国1995—2014年省级面板数据,利用一步系统广义矩估计模型,考察碳排放约束下中国的电力需求量。实证结果如下:碳排放与电力需求量之间具有显著的正向关系,同时不同地区碳排放对电力需求的影响在时间上具有一定滞后性。经济增长、资本存量等对电力消费有正向的作用,产业结构和对外贸易的影响则显示出一定的地域差异性,而城市化水平和电力价格对电力需求并无显著影响。因此,国家实行碳减排政策时应考虑地区间差异,并通过如引导"绿色低碳"投资方式、鼓励绿色低碳产业发展、转变能源结构等途径,以在实现碳减排目标的同时保障电力正常供应,为经济的稳定持续发展保驾护航。
[Abstract]:Electricity production and consumption is an important source of carbon dioxide, but so far most studies have ignored the impact of carbon emission constraints on power demand. Based on the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2014 in China, a one-step system generalized moment estimation model is used to investigate the power demand of China under carbon emission constraints. The empirical results are as follows: there is a significant positive relationship between carbon emissions and electricity demand, and the impact of carbon emissions on power demand in different regions has a certain lag in time. Economic growth and capital stock have positive effects on electricity consumption, while the effects of industrial structure and foreign trade show certain regional differences, while the level of urbanization and the price of electricity have no significant influence on electricity demand. Therefore, when implementing carbon abatement policies, the country should take into account regional differences, and encourage the development of green low-carbon industries and transform the energy structure through ways such as guiding "green low-carbon" investment. In order to achieve carbon emission reduction targets at the same time to protect the normal supply of electricity, for the stable and sustainable development of the economy.
【作者单位】：上海电力学院经济与管理学院;国网冀北电力有限公司经济技术研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“外商直接投资对我国二氧化碳排放绩效的影响效应研究及政策选择”(71103120)
【分类号】：F426.61;X322

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