基于拟蒙特卡罗模拟和核密度估计的概率静态电压稳定计算方法

发布时间：2018-05-19 21:43

本文选题：电力系统 + 概率评估　；参考：《电网技术》2016年12期

【摘要】：概率静态电压稳定计算能考虑电力系统中的随机因素,获得稳定裕度的统计数字和概率分布,是传统确定性的电压稳定计算方法的有效补充。文章研究了基于模拟法的概率静态电压稳定评估方法,通过引入拟蒙特卡罗模拟获得输入随机变量样本,以提高模拟法的计算效率,并采用基于扩散方程的核密度方法以准确获得稳定裕度的概率分布函数。将所提算法应用于IEEE 118节点系统和某省级电网的静态电压稳定分析。计算结果表明:相比于常用的模拟法,所提算法仅需要较少的采样规模即可获得较高的计算精度;随着外部直流馈入功率的增加和内部发电机开机的减少,该省网在低谷时段的电压稳定裕度低于峰荷时段的稳定裕度,即系统轻载时更加逼近稳定运行临界点。
[Abstract]:Probabilistic static voltage stability calculation can take into account the random factors in power system and obtain the statistics and probability distribution of stability margin, which is an effective supplement to the traditional deterministic voltage stability calculation method. In this paper, the probabilistic static voltage stability evaluation method based on simulation method is studied. The input random variable samples are obtained by introducing quasi-Monte Carlo simulation to improve the computational efficiency of the simulation method. The kernel density method based on diffusion equation is used to obtain the probability distribution function of stability margin accurately. The proposed algorithm is applied to the static voltage stability analysis of IEEE 118-bus system and a provincial power network. The calculation results show that the proposed algorithm needs only a small sampling scale to obtain a higher accuracy compared with the usual simulation method, and with the increase of external DC feed power and the decrease of the internal generator, The voltage stability margin of the network is lower than that of the peak load period, that is, it is closer to the critical point of stable operation when the system is under light load.
【作者单位】：电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室(上海交通大学);国网上海市电力公司电力科学研究院;
【基金】：国家电网公司科技项目(52094015001S)~~
【分类号】：TM712

【相似文献】