基于电网负荷预测的需求侧管理系统设计

发布时间：2018-05-20 19:22

本文选题：电力用户负荷 + 负荷预测　；参考：《江苏大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济的高速发展,全社会的电力需求越来越旺盛,电力供需矛盾也趋于增加,给系统安全稳定运行带来很大威胁。应运而生的电力需求侧管理致力于解决社会电能开发、使用、需求等一系列矛盾,如何提升需求侧的管理效率是解决当前电能困境的有效措施之一,论文提出的面向客户端的需求侧管理系统设计将使得电力供需管理做到有的放矢。首先,论文结合电力需求侧管理的主要概念和实施手段,对DSM系统总体方案进行设计。论文从电力用户负荷的分析指标、分类、影响因素分析入手,以解决电网负荷调控措施的实施,实现电力市场相应机制与需求侧响应机制为着力点,确立需求侧管理系统的实施步骤和设计关键,开展针对用电负荷进行优化管理的面向客户端DSM系统的总体设计。其次,对华东某市电网的案例分析,建立负荷预测模型,采用组合负荷预测分析方法来对该市2016年全年用电量进行预测分析,通过优化电网负荷预测分析,提升需求侧管理系统数据库的精准度。最后,根据案例预测分析结果提出基于电网负荷预测的需求侧管理系统需要解决的矛盾,进行面向客户端的DSM系统设计。该系统的设计是建立在优化负荷分析预测的基础上,从电力企业、电力用户、政府企业、能效服务公司等需求侧参与者之间的信息交互需求出发,在用户侧能量管理系统上进行设计延伸,并结合不同客户端的电力能量管理技术,展开企业能量管理、家庭能量管理、建筑物能源管理子系统的设计,从而建立满足多方参与、信息共享、实时互动的需求侧管理系统。通过基于电网负荷预测的需求侧管理系统建立,实现电网各类设备负荷信息采集与交换,同时使需求侧参与者之间能够达到信息与数据互通,及时掌握地区负荷、设备用电等情况以达到各自对需求侧管理的响应,达到需求侧管理效益的最大化。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the power demand of the whole society is more and more vigorous, and the contradiction of power supply and demand is also increasing, which brings a great threat to the safe and stable operation of the system. DSM emerges as the times require to solve a series of contradictions such as social electric energy development, use, demand and so on. How to improve the efficiency of DSM is one of the effective measures to solve the current power dilemma. The design of the client-oriented demand-side management system will make the power supply and demand management be targeted. Firstly, combining the main concept and implementation of DSM, the paper designs the overall scheme of DSM system. This paper starts with the analysis index, classification and influence factor of the power user load, in order to solve the power network load regulation and control measures, and realize the corresponding mechanism of the electricity market and the demand side response mechanism as the focus. The implementation steps and design keys of the demand side management system are established, and the overall design of the client-oriented DSM system for optimizing power load management is carried out. Secondly, based on the case study of a power network in East China, a load forecasting model is established, and the combined load forecasting analysis method is used to forecast and analyze the electricity consumption of the city for the whole year of 2016 by optimizing the load forecasting analysis of the power grid. Improve the accuracy of the demand side management system database. Finally, according to the result of case analysis, the paper puts forward the contradiction that needs to be solved in the demand-side management system based on power network load forecasting, and designs the client-oriented DSM system. The design of the system is based on the optimization of load analysis and forecasting, starting from the demand side information exchange requirements of power enterprises, power users, government enterprises, energy efficiency service companies and other demand-side participants. The design extension is carried out on the user side energy management system, and the design of enterprise energy management, family energy management and building energy management subsystem is carried out in combination with the power energy management technology of different clients, so as to meet the needs of multi-party participation. Information sharing, real-time interactive demand-side management system. Through the establishment of demand-side management system based on power network load forecasting, the collection and exchange of load information of various equipment in power network can be realized, and the information and data exchange between demand-side participants can be achieved, and the local load can be grasped in time. In order to achieve their response to DSM and maximize the benefits of DSM.
【学位授予单位】：江苏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM73

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