肇东市光伏屋顶项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 18:54

本文选题：风险管理 + AHP　；参考：《长春工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：能源缺乏推动国家对新能源的重视和发展,越来越多的人开始注意能源问题,光伏发电项目应运而生。肇东市是太阳能资源比较丰富的地区,当地政府提出因地制宜,发展新能源,带动企业积极参与新能源建设活动。肇东市光伏屋顶项目地理环境优越,光照强度高,日照时间长提供了良好的自然环境。肇东市隶属于绥化市,光伏企业发展迅速,目前已经建立基础配套项目10个,总投资额度达到60亿元,且拥有大批研发水平高、创新能力高的太阳能电池研发企业,并且与高校建立了产学研合作,为肇东市光伏屋顶项目的实施提供了良好的环境。但由于光伏发电项目属于新技术,目前处于行业发展初期,项目在实施过程中可以借鉴的管理经验较少,依然存在一定的风险。肇东市光伏屋顶项目是当地政府支持性项目,该项目建成后具有试点作用,会影响后期其他企业的决策。因此肇东光伏屋顶发电项目对于肇东市新能源企业的发展,乃至整个新能源行业的发展都具有一定的影响,加强项目管理,注重风险管理,是实现肇东市光伏屋顶项目综合效益的重要路径。文章分为六个章节,首先,介绍了研究意义和研究目的,指出对肇东市光伏屋顶项目的研究具有现实操作意义和理论指导意义。介绍了国内外对于风险管理逐步发展的研究现状,指出目前国内已将风险管理引入到项目整体管理中,并取得了显著成效。其次,介绍了风险管理的基本内涵,指出了常用的项目风险管理的流程,风险识别、风险估计、风险评价和风险识别,列举了经过科学证明并广泛应用的风险识别和风险估计的方法,提到德尔菲法和头脑风暴法是常用于进行风险识别的方法。目前可以用于风险管理者进行风险评价的方法较多,但是单一的评价方法大多数具有局限性。第三,对肇东市光伏屋顶项目进行分析,采用专家打分法,结合文献综述法和项目实地调研法,对项目存在的风险源进行分析,从经济、技术、市场、管理和环境五个维度识别出项目面临的潜在风险源。第四,对肇东市光伏屋顶项目的风险源进行评价,建立模糊综合评价模型,通过AHP法获得项目风险因素的权重,结合模糊评价法得到判断矩阵,进而得出评价结论,按照最大隶属度原则得出,肇东市光伏屋顶项目的风险评价等级为V4严重。因此应当采取一定的应对策略,减少项目中潜在风险发生的概率或者风险影响程度。第五,借鉴风险评价结果,采用科学合理的应对策略,指出对于有差异性的风险类别应当采取有针对性的风险应对策略,针对同一种风险可能采取多种应对策略,在采取策略减少风险带来的损害时应当充分考虑项目的综合效益,追求项目整理利益和综合效益最大。第六章结论部分,指出文章的研究结论,用于指导肇东市光伏屋顶项目风险管理者进行风险管理,并指出了文章研究的不足和改进策略。
[Abstract]:Lack of energy promotes national attention and development of new energy, more and more people begin to pay attention to energy problems, photovoltaic power generation projects emerge as the times require. Zhaodong City is rich in solar energy resources, the local government proposes to adapt to local conditions, develop new energy, and drive enterprises to actively participate in new energy construction activities. Zhaodong photovoltaic roof project has excellent geographical environment, high illumination intensity and long sunshine time to provide a good natural environment. Zhaodong City belongs to Suihua City. Photovoltaic enterprises have developed rapidly. At present, they have established 10 basic supporting projects, with a total investment quota of 6 billion yuan, and have a large number of solar cell R & D enterprises with high R & D level and high innovation capability. The cooperation with colleges and universities provides a good environment for the implementation of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city. However, because photovoltaic power generation project is a new technology, it is in the early stage of industry development, and the management experience can be used for reference in the implementation process of the project, and there are still some risks. Zhaodong photovoltaic roof project is a local government support project, which has a pilot role after completion, which will affect the later decision-making of other enterprises. Therefore, the Zhaodong photovoltaic roof power generation project has a certain impact on the development of new energy enterprises in Zhaodong city, and even the development of the whole new energy industry, strengthening project management and paying attention to risk management. It is an important way to realize the comprehensive benefit of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city. The paper is divided into six chapters. Firstly, the significance and purpose of the research are introduced, and it is pointed out that the research on photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong has practical and theoretical significance. This paper introduces the research status of risk management at home and abroad, and points out that risk management has been introduced into the whole project management in China and has achieved remarkable results. Secondly, it introduces the basic connotation of risk management, and points out the process of project risk management, risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and risk identification. This paper lists the methods of risk identification and risk estimation which have been proved by science and are widely used. It is mentioned that Delphi method and brainstorming method are often used for risk identification. At present, there are many methods that can be used for risk assessment by risk managers, but most of the single evaluation methods have limitations. Third, analyze the photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city, adopt the expert scoring method, combine the literature review method and the project field investigation method, analyze the risk source of the project, from economy, technology, market, The five dimensions of management and environment identify the potential sources of risk faced by the project. Fourthly, the risk source of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city is evaluated, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established, the weight of project risk factors is obtained by AHP method, the judgment matrix is obtained by combining fuzzy evaluation method, and the evaluation conclusion is obtained. According to the principle of maximum membership, the risk evaluation grade of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city is V _ 4 serious. Therefore, some countermeasures should be adopted to reduce the probability of the occurrence of potential risk or the degree of risk impact in the project. Fifthly, draw lessons from the results of risk assessment, adopt scientific and reasonable coping strategies, and point out that we should adopt targeted risk coping strategies for different risk categories, and may adopt multiple coping strategies for the same kind of risk. The comprehensive benefit of the project should be fully considered when adopting the strategy to reduce the damage caused by the risk, and the project consolidation benefit and the comprehensive benefit should be pursued the greatest. The last part of chapter six points out the conclusion of the paper, which is used to guide the risk management of photovoltaic roof project in Zhaodong city, and points out the deficiency of the research and the improvement strategy.
【学位授予单位】：长春工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61;F272.3;TM615

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