火电建设项目施工阶段风险评价与控制研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 00:41

本文选题：火电建设项目 + 施工阶段　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国经济社会发展逐渐步入新常态后,电力消费的增长速度仍高于能源需求总量的增速,电力工业将进入提质增效、科学发展的关键时期。火电建设项目具有资金投入大、建设周期长、技术性较强以及管理比较复杂等特点,存在各种潜在的风险因素。而国内对于火电建设项目的风险管理的研究比较笼统,建设项目各阶段面临的风险与威胁的分析较为缺乏,建设单位在火电建设项目施工阶段中的风险管理环节比较薄弱。因此,加强对火电建设项目施工过程中风险评价与控制的研究,构建科学合理的项目施工阶段风险管理体系,可以对建设单位在火电建设项目施工过程进行风险管理与控制具有更好的实践指导作用。论文以项目风险管理理论为基础,通过对国内外火电建设项目风险管理现状的研究分析和对火电建设项目施工过程的实地调研,总结归纳了火电建设项目在施工阶段的风险影响因素,构建了火电建设项目建设单位在施工阶段的风险评价指标体系,运用主客观综合集成赋权法计算出各评价指标的权重。在此基础上,建立了基于理想解法的火电建设项目施工阶段的风险比较模型,确定项目整体的风险水平与项目中技术风险、管理风险、市场风险、政策风险和自然风险的风险等级。通过确定评语集合、确定指标最优与最劣评分、构建目标项目指标评分集合、计算目标项目的贴近度、计算目标项目中准则层的相对贴近度、确定目标项目风险等级几个步骤后,确定各项风险的等级,为火电建设项目的风险防范和控制提供一定的指导。论文选取了L火电建设项目作为实证研究的项目案例,在对火电建设项目施工阶段的风险因素进行分析后,运用模糊层次分析法和熵权法计算出指标权重。计算结果显示,在所有指标中,供货质量问题权重最大,权重最小的指标是电力监理工程师风险,这些指标权重与现实中火电建设项目的情况相符。然后,运用基于理想解法的项目风险评价模型计算目标项目的整体风险水平,发现该项目处于“中等风险”,但距离“较高风险”很近。最后,根据评价结果,针对各类风险分别提出了相应的控制措施,对于降低该项目的整体风险具有一定的指导意义,也为国内建设单位在火电建设项目施工阶段进行风险管理提供合理化建议。
[Abstract]:After the economic and social development of our country step into the new normal, the growth rate of electric power consumption is still higher than the total energy demand growth rate, the electric power industry will enter the key period of improving quality and increasing efficiency and scientific development. Thermal power construction projects have the characteristics of large capital investment, long construction period, strong technology and complex management, and there are various potential risk factors. But the domestic research on the risk management of thermal power construction project is relatively general, the risk and threat analysis of each stage of the construction project is relatively lacking, and the risk management link of the construction unit in the construction phase of thermal power construction project is relatively weak. Therefore, we should strengthen the research on risk evaluation and control in the construction process of thermal power construction project, and construct a scientific and reasonable risk management system in the construction phase of the project. It can provide better practical guidance for the construction units to manage and control the risks in the construction process of thermal power construction projects. Based on the theory of project risk management, this paper analyzes the current situation of risk management of thermal power construction projects at home and abroad and investigates the construction process of thermal power construction projects on the spot. The risk influencing factors of thermal power construction project in the construction phase are summarized and the risk evaluation index system of the thermal power construction project construction unit in the construction phase is constructed. The weight of each evaluation index is calculated by using the subjective and objective comprehensive integrated weighting method. On this basis, the risk comparison model of thermal power construction project is established based on the ideal solution, and the overall risk level of the project and the technical risk, management risk and market risk in the project are determined. The risk level of policy risk and natural risk. By determining the evaluation set, determining the best and the worst score, constructing the target item index score set, calculating the closeness degree of the target item, calculating the relative closeness degree of the criterion layer in the target project, After several steps are taken to determine the risk grade of the target project, the grade of each risk is determined, which provides some guidance for the prevention and control of the risk of the thermal power construction project. The paper selects the L thermal power construction project as the project case of empirical study, after analyzing the risk factors in the construction phase of the thermal power construction project, the index weight is calculated by using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method. The calculation results show that among all the indexes, the weight of supply quality problem is the biggest and the lowest is the risk of electric power supervision engineer, which is consistent with the actual situation of thermal power construction project. Then, the project risk evaluation model based on ideal solution is used to calculate the overall risk level of the target project, and it is found that the project is in "medium risk", but it is very close to "higher risk". Finally, according to the evaluation results, the corresponding control measures are put forward for each kind of risk, which has certain guiding significance for reducing the overall risk of the project. It also provides rational suggestions for domestic construction units to carry out risk management in the construction phase of thermal power construction projects.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TU71;TM621

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